Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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760
FNUS74 KHUN 181328
FWSHUN

Spot Forecast for Rock House...USFS
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
828 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Based on the terrain and exposure of the burn location a similar forecast
is expected as the Shoe Barn prescribed fire. Gusty SW winds of 25 to
30 mph and Min RH values in the 40 to 50 percent range.

Gusty southwesterly winds are expected today as a system moves to the
north of the area. Expect 20ft gusts of 25 to 30 mph at times and
transport winds between 15 to 25 mph. Mixing heights increase to around
3,000 feet this afternoon but a strong inversion at 4,000 feet will
prevent any further increase in mixing heights. These southwesterly
winds will allow for a slight increase in moisture through the day with
Min RH values ranging from 40 to 50 percent. The inversion and increasing
moisture could lead to lower cloud heights possibly as low as 2,000 feet
at time this afternoon.

A cold front will begin to impact the area this afternoon/evening and a
few scattered light showers are possible along the front. But not expecting
much in the way of wetting rains with these showers. Winds switch to the
NW by 06Z tonight behind the front and 20ft winds weaken overnight. Transport
winds remain elevated though and should help with dispersion tonight. Cooler
and drier air arrives behind the front and should result in Min RH values
on Thursday of 35 to 45 percent.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 21 mph.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......1600-3100 ft AGL, increasing to 2400-3600 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph.
LVORI...............2.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....                            SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                            RW
TEMP............64  66  69  71  74  76  77  77  75
RH..............65  63  59  55  51  50  48  50  54
20 FT WIND DIR..220 220 220 230 230 230 230 240 240
20 FT WIND SPD..10  12  13  13  13  13  13  12  10
20 FT WIND GUST.17  19  21  20  20  18  18  17  16
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.220 220 230 230 240 240 230 230 230
TRANSP WIND SPD.18  21  22  23  24  24  24  23  21
DISPERSION IDX..21  28  48  56  63  61  58  53  58
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent), then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent), then becoming
                    clear (0-10 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers early in the evening. A chance of
                    showers late in the evening, then a slight
                    chance of showers late in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 9 mph.
CWR.................10 percent, increasing to 20 percent in the
                    evening, then increasing to 30 percent in the
                    evening, decreasing to 20 percent in the
                    evening, decreasing to 10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......1700-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 21 mph.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR
WEATHER COV.....        SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............73  70  68  65  63  61  60  58  55  53  50  48
RH..............57  63  68  75  81  84  81  77  80  80  83  83
20 FT WIND DIR..250 250 250 260 260 270 300 320 320 330 330 330
20 FT WIND SPD..8   8   8   8   8   8   8   9   8   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.11  10  10  10  10  11  11  14  11  11  10  8
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.230 230 240 250 250 270 300 310 320 330 330 340
TRANSP WIND SPD.18  17  17  17  17  17  17  17  18  20  21  21
DISPERSION IDX..36  37  39  41  42  42  12  12  12  13  14  14
LVORI...........1   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
CWR.............10  10  20  20  30  20  20  10  10  10  0   0
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  20  20  30  20  20  10  10  10  0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 8 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......2600-4500 ft AGL, increasing to 4500-4700 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 21 mph.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............46  46  47  50  52  54  56  58  59  60  60  59
RH..............83  76  68  58  54  48  45  42  40  39  39  39
20 FT WIND DIR..340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 350 350 350 350
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.8   8   8   10  10  11  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 350 350 350 350
TRANSP WIND SPD.21  20  20  18  17  16  14  13  13  13  13  14
DISPERSION IDX..14  13  13  12  12  61  53  50  50  51  51  55
LVORI...........4   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...Stumpf
Requested by...Craig Moore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806942.0/HUN
.EMAIL gcmoore@fs.fed.us



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