Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FNUS73 KMPX 260212
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Tribute WMA WMA E Burn Units WMA0170900...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
912 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2200 CDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Confidence is high in a cold front moving through the Willmar area
between 8am and 9am. Northwest winds will become gusty behind it,
with those NW winds remaining pretty steady through the rest of the
day. Some more uncertainty with how quickly dewpoints will drop behind
the front, which in turn leads to uncertainty with the humidity forecast,
but worst case scenario for minimum RHs Thursday afternoon will be
for it to drop down to around 25%.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming sunny. Chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning. Chance of
                    showers 30 percent.
Temperature.........Max 58.
RH..................Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 11 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL increasing to 6300-6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 22 mph shifting to the north 25 to
                    32 mph early in the morning.
Mixing winds........West 16 to 22 mph shifting to the north 25 to
                    32 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (6200-47700 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (135000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to or low.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............41  43  47  50  52  54  55  56  57  58  58  57
RH..............76  73  68  63  56  50  45  40  35  33  32  31
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   9   12  15  16  15  15  15  16  16  15  14
20 FT wind gust.15  15  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.2 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.8 6.6 6.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  22  28  32  32  30  28  26  25  25  25  26
Mixing wind dir.W   W   NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Mixing wind spd.16  22  28  32  32  30  28  26  25  25  25  26
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
SDspl kt-ft/10006   23  48  77  104 122 135 139 144 150 148 145

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Temperature.........Min 38.
RH..................Max 76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light, then becoming west 5 to
                    8 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 25 mph becoming southwest 9 to
                    17 mph early in the evening, then shifting to
                    the west around 20 mph early in the morning.
Mixing winds........Northwest 21 to 25 mph becoming southwest 9 to
                    17 mph early in the evening, then shifting to
                    the west around 20 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (133500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (2100 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............55     48     41     39     40     38
RH..............32     42     52     59     64     76
20 ft wind......NW 12  W 6    W 3    SW 4   SW 6   SW 7
20 ft wind gust.20     10     5      5      10     15
Mix hgt (ft)....6100   2200   300    300    300    300
Transport wind..N 25   NW 15  W 9    SW 12  SW 17  SW 20
Mixing wind.....N 25   NW 15  W 9    SW 12  SW 17  SW 20
Haines index....4      4      4      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/1000134    30     2      2      4      4

$$
Forecaster...GRIESINGER
Requested by...Nicholas Snavely
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807883.0/MPX
.EMAIL Nicholas.Snavely@state.mn.us



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