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000
FNUS73 KMPX 191325
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Paulsen RX Burn...Red Rock Fire
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
825 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Paulsen RX... Colder temperatures are expected to remain
today with highs near 40. RH will be relatively high due to this
in the 50s percent at ignition time and minimum of mid 40s
percent. Winds are likely the primary concern with westerly winds
at 10-15mph gusting up to 25mph at ground level, with sustained
winds increasing to 20-25mph at 20-40ft remaining westerly in
direction.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Isolated
                    flurries late in the morning. Isolated snow
                    showers early in the afternoon, then scattered
                    snow showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........32 at ignition...Max 39.
RH..................56 percent at ignition...Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 23 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Breezy. Northwest winds 23 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /149300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /195800 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7000 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 31 to 33 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....    ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO
Weather type....    SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  RS
Tstm cov........
Temp............32  32  34  34  36  37  37  38  38  38  36  34
RH..............56  56  49  51  47  48  48  48  48  50  52  61
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..23  24  25  25  26  25  25  23  23  22  20  17
20 FT wind gust.28  28  30  30  30  30  32  29  28  28  26  25
Mix hgt (kft)...5.1 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.0 6.7 5.8 5.4 5.3 2.9 1.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.33  32  32  31  32  32  32  32  32  31  28  23
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered snow
                    showers early in the evening, then isolated
                    snow showers early in the evening. Isolated
                    sprinkles and flurries late in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 28.
RH..................Max 81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 15 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (69100 knot-ft) decreasing to fair
                    (22000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 23 to 32 mph decreasing to 18 to 22
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hasenstein
Requested by...Amanda Castellano
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411394.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL amanda.castellano@redrockfire.com