Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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712
FNUS74 KOUN 192055
FWSOUN

Spot Forecast for RHEA...Oklahoma Forestry service
National Weather Service Norman OK
355 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1800 CDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (405) 325-3816 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Winds will continue to veer around to southeast this evening and
tonight with speeds coming down briefly this evening before increasing
again overnight and tomorrow. There will likely be a shallow inversion
early tomorrow morning, but should quickly mix out by 9 AM. As far as
rain forecast goes, rain is still expected to commence Friday evening
and continue off an on through Saturday evening. A few of the forecast
models have backed off on the rain totals for western Oklahoma through
this event, which has been typical the past several months. Our official
forecast has a storm total around 0.75" with model data indicating
forecasted totals between 0.50 and 2.0. The lower amounts are more likely
than the higher amounts given the dynamics of the system.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4000-4600 ft AGL, decreasing to 200-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-45700 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......4000-4600 ft AGL, decreasing to 200-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........2      3      9      9      21     28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............67     59     48     48     46     39
RH..............24     35     58     59     65     82
20 ft wind......E 9    E 9    E 8    SE 10  SE 9   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.12     12     10     13     12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....4600   2600   200    300    300    200
Transport wind..E 10   E 13   E 7    E 9    E 8    SE 8
VRate ktft/1000.46     28     13     2      0      0

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent), then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). A chance of showers in
                    the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 16 mph, increasing to 14
                    to 17 mph with gusts to around 22 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1500 ft AGL, increasing to 4000-4500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 16 mph, increasing to 14 to 17
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (1300-47300 knot-ft), increasing
                    to good to excellent (53500-97300 knot-ft) in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1500 ft AGL, increasing to 4000-4500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 16 mph, increasing to 14 to 17
                    mph in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........28     59     67     67     86     90
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............40     45     50     58     63     63
RH..............79     68     60     44     39     40
20 ft wind......SE 8   SE 12  SE 15  SE 17  SE 17  SE 16
20 ft wind gust.10     14     19     22     22     20
Mix hgt (ft)....200    600    2400   3700   4400   4400
Transport wind..E 7    SE 13  SE 23  SE 26  SE 28  SE 29
VRate ktft/1000.2      30     64     89     97     95

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A chance of showers
                    early in the evening, then showers and a chance
                    of thunderstorms.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1200-3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent (28400-86000 knot-ft),
                    decreasing to fair to good (16300-32400
                    knot-ft) after midnight.
Mixing height.......1200-3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 15 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........90        96        93        93
Weather cov.....CHANCE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Temp............62        53        48        47
RH..............44        72        89        96
20 FT wind......SE 15G19  SE 10G13  SE 10G13  SE 13G16
Mix hgt (ft)....3100      1600      1400      1400
Transport wind..SE 24     SE 22     SE 25     SE 22
VRate ktft/1000.86        62        37        26

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). A chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Showers. A
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........63-69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1100-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (15100-42600 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......1100-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 14 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........97           99           99
Weather cov.....DEFNTE       DEFNTE       DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE       S CHC        S CHC
Temp............44           44           50
RH..............98           100          76
20 FT wind......E 12G14      E 14G17      E 12G14
Mix hgt (ft)....1100         1400         1900
Transport wind..E 18         E 22         E 15
VRate ktft/1000.24           23           32

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs
in the lower 60s. North winds around 10 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Northeast winds around 6 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s.
Highs around 70. South winds around 7 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the upper 60s.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...David Greathouse
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1807104.0/OUN
.EMAIL david.greathouse@ncagr.gov



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