Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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FNUS76 KPQR 260959
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Spot Forecast for Filly #570...USFS WIF
National Weather Service Portland OR
259 AM PDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 PDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Portland, Oregon office.

...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MCKENZIE DISTRICT TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...A surface thermal trough will be over the burn
site into the afternoon. The trough axis shifts to the
Cascade crest late in the afternoon or early evening.
Expect light east or offshore low-level flow over the
area through the morning. Meanwhile, the marine layer
will continue to deepen through the day and will result
in a shift to onshore low-level flow late in the day.
The presence of the thermal trough will result in enhanced
mixing heights due to the low-level instability. The
marine air floods into the area Thursday night and
will likely extend to the Cascade Crest by Friday morning.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....83-86.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast to East 2 to 7 mph, becoming
                    more Up-slope mid to late morning. Wind
                    more Southwest to West 4 to 8 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........East to Southeast 3 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL late morning, increasing to
                    5500 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....East around 7 mph.
Haines Index(High)..3 (very low).
Haines Index (Mid)..5 (moderate).
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.


TIME    1000     1200     1400     1600     1800
TEMP    63-66    75-78    83-86    83-86    78-81
RH      48-55%   28-33%   20-25%   20-25%   27-33%
WIND    VRBL 4   SW 4     SW 5     SW-W 6   SW-W 6
GUST              7         9       10       10


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy early evening then
                    increasing clouds. A slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the
                    evening then a chance of showers.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....48-51.
Max humidity........75-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest to West 5 to 10 mph early
                    evening with gusts to 15 mph. Wind
                    becoming drainage less than 5 mph after
                    dark. Gusty and erratic wind expected
                    near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........Northeast 3 to 7 mph, shifting to West
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL, decreasing to 1000 ft AGL
                    early evening.
Transport winds.....Light winds.
Haines Index(High)..3 (very low).
Haines Index (Mid)..4 (low).
Rainfall amount.....Up to 0.05 inches.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Showers likely.
CWR.................40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....54-57.
Min humidity........60-70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Variable to 5 mph, becoming Southwest
                    to West 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15
                    mph in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........West 4 to 7 mph, increasing to 7 to
                    12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......Rising to 2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph.
Haines Index(High)..2 (very low).
Haines Index (Mid)..2 (very low).
Rainfall amount.....0.10 to 0.25 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Weishaar
Requested by...Dirk Rogers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807870.0/PQR
.EMAIL drogers02@fs.fed.us



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