Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
709
UXUS97 KPUB 041249
SRGPUB
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0649 MDT Saturday, May 4, 2024
This forecast is for Villa Grove, CO for Saturday, May 4, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 50.5 F/10.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1469 ft/min (7.5 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 23618 ft MSL (14640 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 63.0 F/17.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1000 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1400 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 19234 ft MSL (10256 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 05/05....... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:02:29 / 19:58:07 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 55 min 38 sec (835 min 38 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:00:18 MDT... 68.01 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 05/04/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 9995 ft MSL (1017 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 12208 ft MSL (3230 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16303 ft MSL (7325 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 18909 ft MSL (9931 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.3
K index......................... +6.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -56.4 -69.5 250 40 21 1.0 0.5 M M M M M
45000 -55.1 -67.2 255 45 23 -1.6 -0.9 M M M M M
40000 -58.1 -72.6 255 45 23 -1.9 -1.0 M M M M M
38000 -56.6 -69.9 250 44 23 4.6 2.5 M M M M M
36000 -53.9 -65.0 250 43 22 4.6 2.5 M M M M M
34000 -50.7 -59.3 250 41 21 6.9 3.8 M M M M M
32000 -46.5 -51.7 250 39 20 6.9 3.8 M M M M M
30000 -42.3 -44.1 250 36 19 7.5 4.1 22.2 71.9 3.9 M M
29000 -40.1 -40.2 250 35 18 7.5 4.1 21.2 70.2 3.2 M M
28000 -37.3 -35.1 250 33 17 7.5 4.1 20.2 68.4 2.4 M M
27000 -35.0 -31.0 250 31 16 7.9 4.3 19.5 67.1 1.8 M M
26000 -32.7 -26.9 250 30 15 7.8 4.3 18.7 65.7 1.2 M M
25000 -30.3 -22.5 250 28 14 7.8 4.3 18.1 64.5 0.7 M M
24000 -28.0 -18.4 250 26 13 8.3 4.6 17.5 63.5 0.2 M M
23000 -25.5 -13.9 250 23 12 8.3 4.6 16.9 62.4 -0.3 1400 7.1
22000 -23.0 -9.4 245 20 10 8.3 4.6 16.4 61.6 -0.7 1296 6.6
21000 -20.7 -5.3 245 19 10 6.6 3.6 15.8 60.5 -1.3 1196 6.1
20000 -18.7 -1.7 250 21 11 6.7 3.7 14.7 58.5 -2.3 1107 5.6
19500 -17.7 0.1 250 22 11 6.8 3.7 14.2 57.6 -2.7 1062 5.4
19000 -16.7 1.9 255 23 12 6.8 3.8 13.8 56.8 -3.2 1018 5.2
18500 -15.7 3.7 255 24 12 6.2 3.4 13.3 55.9 -3.7 974 4.9
18000 -14.8 5.4 250 25 13 6.2 3.4 12.7 54.8 -4.3 933 4.7
17500 -13.9 7.0 250 27 14 6.7 3.7 12.1 53.8 -4.8 891 4.5
17000 -12.9 8.8 250 27 14 7.4 4.1 11.7 53.0 -5.3 845 4.3
16500 -11.8 10.8 250 26 13 7.4 4.1 11.3 52.4 -5.7 797 4.1
16000 -10.6 12.9 250 25 13 9.2 5.1 11.1 51.9 -6.0 746 3.8
15500 -9.2 15.4 250 24 13 9.0 4.9 11.0 51.7 -6.1 692 3.5
15000 -7.9 17.8 245 23 12 10.4 5.7 10.9 51.7 -6.2 636 3.2
14500 -5.5 22.1 245 23 12 8.5 4.6 11.2 52.1 -6.1 542 2.8
14000 -4.3 24.3 245 22 12 9.9 5.4 10.9 51.6 -6.4 491 2.5
13500 -2.9 26.8 245 22 11 9.8 5.4 10.8 51.5 -6.5 434 2.2
13000 -1.6 29.1 245 20 11 7.2 3.9 10.6 51.1 -6.7 383 1.9
12500 -0.5 31.1 240 19 10 8.1 4.5 10.3 50.5 -7.1 334 1.7
12000 0.4 32.7 240 17 9 3.6 2.0 9.7 49.5 -7.7 292 1.5
11750 0.7 33.3 240 14 7 4.5 2.5 9.3 48.7 -8.2 276 1.4
11500 1.1 34.0 240 12 6 5.9 3.2 8.9 48.1 -8.5 258 1.3
11250 1.4 34.5 235 10 5 3.7 2.0 8.6 47.5 -8.9 239 1.2
11000 1.5 34.7 230 8 4 -1.0 -0.5 8.0 46.3 -9.6 230 1.2
10750 1.3 34.3 220 6 3 -3.9 -2.2 7.0 44.6 -10.6 229 1.2
10500 0.9 33.6 200 5 3 -4.6 -2.5 5.9 42.7 -11.7 233 1.2
10250 0.5 32.9 175 4 2 -6.1 -3.3 4.8 40.7 -12.9 237 1.2
10000 -0.1 31.8 150 4 2 -9.0 -5.0 3.5 38.3 -14.2 248 1.3
9750 -0.8 30.6 130 4 2 -9.5 -5.2 2.0 35.7 -15.7 263 1.3
9500 -1.5 29.3 110 4 2 -8.4 -4.6 0.6 33.1 -17.2 276 1.4
9250 -2.0 28.4 090 4 2 -3.4 -1.9 -0.6 30.9 -18.5 284 1.4
9000 -1.6 29.1 075 4 2 19.9 10.9 -0.9 30.4 -18.8 264 1.3
8750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/04/2024 at 0900 MDT | 05/04/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +2.1 LI... +1.1 | CAPE... +182.7 LI... -1.1
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +8.2 | CINH... -3.7 K Index... +12.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -56.4 -69.5 245 40 21 0.9 0.5 | -56.3 -69.3 245 41 21 1.1 0.6
45000 -55.1 -67.2 250 42 22 -2.0 -1.1 | -54.8 -66.6 245 43 22 -2.3 -1.3
40000 -58.8 -73.8 240 35 18 -2.3 -1.3 | -59.2 -74.6 240 34 17 -2.8 -1.5
38000 -57.2 -71.0 240 34 18 5.3 2.9 | -57.6 -71.7 240 32 16 5.5 3.0
36000 -54.0 -65.2 240 35 18 5.2 2.9 | -54.4 -65.9 240 31 16 5.5 3.0
34000 -50.5 -58.9 240 35 18 7.0 3.8 | -50.8 -59.4 235 31 16 7.0 3.8
32000 -46.4 -51.5 240 34 17 7.0 3.8 | -46.6 -51.9 235 32 16 7.0 3.9
30000 -42.2 -44.0 240 32 16 7.2 3.9 | -42.3 -44.1 235 31 16 7.5 4.1
29000 -40.0 -40.0 240 29 15 7.2 3.9 | -39.5 -39.1 235 27 14 7.5 4.1
28000 -37.3 -35.1 240 27 14 7.2 3.9 | -37.3 -35.1 235 25 13 7.5 4.1
27000 -35.1 -31.2 240 25 13 8.3 4.5 | -35.0 -31.0 235 23 12 8.0 4.4
26000 -32.7 -26.9 245 24 12 8.2 4.5 | -32.6 -26.7 235 21 11 8.0 4.4
25000 -30.2 -22.4 245 23 12 8.2 4.5 | -30.2 -22.4 235 20 10 8.0 4.4
24000 -27.8 -18.0 245 23 12 8.2 4.5 | -27.9 -18.2 235 19 10 7.6 4.2
23000 -25.3 -13.5 245 22 11 8.2 4.5 | -25.6 -14.1 235 19 10 7.6 4.2
22000 -22.8 -9.0 245 21 11 8.2 4.5 | -23.3 -9.9 240 20 10 7.6 4.2
21000 -20.5 -4.9 245 20 10 6.6 3.6 | -21.1 -6.0 240 21 11 7.0 3.8
20000 -18.5 -1.3 245 21 11 6.7 3.7 | -19.0 -2.2 245 23 12 7.1 3.9
19500 -17.5 0.5 245 22 11 6.7 3.7 | -18.0 -0.4 250 25 13 7.1 3.9
19000 -16.6 2.1 245 23 12 6.7 3.7 | -16.9 1.6 250 26 13 7.1 3.9
18500 -15.5 4.1 245 23 12 7.4 4.1 | -15.8 3.6 250 27 14 7.7 4.2
18000 -14.4 6.1 245 24 12 7.4 4.1 | -14.7 5.5 250 27 14 7.7 4.2
17500 -13.3 8.1 245 25 13 7.3 4.0 | -13.6 7.5 250 27 14 7.9 4.3
17000 -12.3 9.9 245 24 12 7.1 3.9 | -12.4 9.7 245 26 13 8.0 4.4
16500 -11.3 11.7 250 24 12 7.1 3.9 | -11.3 11.7 245 24 12 8.1 4.4
16000 -10.2 13.6 250 23 12 8.1 4.4 | -10.0 14.0 245 22 12 8.7 4.8
15500 -9.0 15.8 250 22 11 7.9 4.3 | -8.8 16.2 245 21 11 8.6 4.7
15000 -7.7 18.1 250 21 11 9.9 5.5 | -7.4 18.7 240 19 10 10.3 5.7
14500 -6.2 20.8 250 21 11 10.7 5.9 | -5.1 22.8 240 18 9 6.8 3.8
14000 -4.2 24.4 250 20 10 9.9 5.4 | -4.1 24.6 235 17 9 10.1 5.6
13500 -2.8 27.0 250 20 10 9.6 5.3 | -2.7 27.1 230 17 9 9.7 5.3
13000 -1.5 29.3 250 19 10 7.8 4.3 | -1.5 29.3 225 16 8 6.6 3.6
12500 -0.4 31.3 240 19 10 7.9 4.3 | -0.5 31.1 215 14 7 7.9 4.3
12000 0.4 32.7 235 17 9 2.7 1.5 | 0.4 32.7 195 12 6 6.0 3.3
11750 0.6 33.1 235 15 8 2.4 1.3 | 1.0 33.8 185 11 6 9.2 5.0
11500 0.8 33.4 230 14 7 3.0 1.6 | 1.6 34.9 175 10 5 9.4 5.1
11250 1.0 33.8 225 12 6 1.9 1.0 | 2.3 36.1 165 10 5 9.2 5.0
11000 1.0 33.8 220 11 6 0.3 0.2 | 3.0 37.4 155 10 5 8.5 4.7
10750 1.0 33.8 210 9 5 -1.2 -0.7 | 3.6 38.5 140 9 5 9.2 5.0
10500 0.8 33.4 200 8 4 -2.1 -1.1 | 4.3 39.7 135 9 5 9.8 5.4
10250 0.6 33.1 180 7 4 -3.1 -1.7 | 5.1 41.2 130 9 5 10.2 5.6
10000 0.3 32.5 170 6 3 -4.9 -2.7 | 5.9 42.6 125 9 5 10.9 6.0
9750 -0.1 31.8 155 5 3 -4.6 -2.5 | 6.7 44.1 125 9 4 11.7 6.4
9500 -0.5 31.1 130 4 2 -3.8 -2.1 | 7.6 45.7 120 9 4 10.9 6.0
9250 -0.6 30.9 110 4 2 5.2 2.8 | 8.5 47.3 115 8 4 18.6 10.2
9000 1.2 34.2 090 4 2 53.2 29.2 | 11.6 52.9 115 8 4 77.9 42.8
8750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
05/04/2024 at 1500 MDT | 05/04/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +193.1 LI... -0.7 | CAPE... +158.4 LI... -0.7
CINH... -10.3 K Index... +22.9 | CINH... -2.6 K Index... +21.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.5 -67.9 250 41 21 0.9 0.5 | -55.6 -68.1 250 33 17 1.3 0.7
45000 -54.3 -65.7 250 43 22 -2.5 -1.3 | -54.1 -65.4 255 33 17 -3.2 -1.7
40000 -59.2 -74.6 245 32 17 -3.1 -1.7 | -58.6 -73.5 255 32 17 -3.0 -1.7
38000 -57.8 -72.0 245 30 15 5.1 2.8 | -57.4 -71.3 255 30 16 4.7 2.6
36000 -54.8 -66.6 240 29 15 5.1 2.8 | -54.6 -66.3 250 28 14 4.7 2.6
34000 -51.3 -60.3 240 29 15 7.4 4.0 | -51.4 -60.5 245 26 14 7.2 3.9
32000 -46.9 -52.4 240 31 16 7.4 4.1 | -47.0 -52.6 240 25 13 7.3 4.0
30000 -42.4 -44.3 240 31 16 7.6 4.2 | -41.9 -43.4 240 24 13 8.4 4.6
29000 -39.6 -39.3 235 28 15 7.6 4.1 | -39.3 -38.7 235 24 12 8.4 4.6
28000 -37.3 -35.1 235 27 14 7.6 4.2 | -36.8 -34.2 235 24 12 8.4 4.6
27000 -35.0 -31.0 235 24 13 7.7 4.2 | -34.4 -29.9 235 23 12 8.0 4.4
26000 -32.7 -26.9 235 22 11 7.7 4.2 | -32.0 -25.6 235 23 12 8.0 4.4
25000 -30.4 -22.7 235 19 10 7.7 4.2 | -29.6 -21.3 235 22 12 8.0 4.4
24000 -28.2 -18.8 235 18 9 7.5 4.1 | -27.1 -16.8 235 22 11 8.4 4.6
23000 -25.9 -14.6 240 19 10 7.6 4.2 | -24.6 -12.3 240 22 11 8.5 4.7
22000 -23.7 -10.7 240 21 11 7.6 4.2 | -22.1 -7.8 245 22 11 8.5 4.7
21000 -21.3 -6.3 240 23 12 9.0 4.9 | -19.7 -3.5 245 22 11 7.0 3.8
20000 -18.7 -1.7 240 24 12 8.9 4.9 | -17.6 0.3 240 23 12 7.2 3.9
19500 -17.4 0.7 235 24 12 9.0 4.9 | -16.6 2.1 240 23 12 7.2 3.9
19000 -16.1 3.0 235 25 13 9.1 5.0 | -15.5 4.1 240 23 12 7.2 4.0
18500 -14.9 5.2 235 25 13 7.3 4.0 | -14.5 5.9 235 23 12 6.9 3.8
18000 -13.8 7.2 230 25 13 7.4 4.0 | -13.5 7.7 230 22 11 6.9 3.8
17500 -12.7 9.1 225 25 13 7.3 4.0 | -12.5 9.5 225 21 11 6.9 3.8
17000 -11.6 11.1 220 24 12 7.2 3.9 | -11.5 11.3 220 20 10 6.9 3.8
16500 -10.6 12.9 215 23 12 7.1 3.9 | -10.5 13.1 215 19 10 6.9 3.8
16000 -9.4 15.1 210 22 12 8.8 4.8 | -9.0 15.8 205 18 9 6.8 3.8
15500 -8.2 17.2 205 21 11 8.5 4.7 | -8.0 17.6 200 17 9 7.0 3.8
15000 -6.0 21.2 200 19 10 11.1 6.1 | -6.9 19.6 195 17 9 8.3 4.5
14500 -4.4 24.1 200 18 9 7.9 4.3 | -5.7 21.7 190 17 9 5.9 3.2
14000 -3.2 26.2 195 17 9 9.7 5.3 | -4.9 23.2 185 16 8 7.9 4.3
13500 -1.9 28.6 195 16 8 9.2 5.0 | -3.8 25.2 180 15 8 7.5 4.1
13000 -0.5 31.1 190 15 8 9.4 5.2 | -2.6 27.3 170 14 7 8.6 4.7
12500 0.9 33.6 180 13 7 9.7 5.3 | -1.4 29.5 160 13 7 8.8 4.9
12000 2.1 35.8 170 12 6 7.8 4.3 | -0.1 31.8 145 13 7 8.4 4.6
11750 2.8 37.0 165 11 6 9.8 5.4 | 0.6 33.1 140 12 6 9.7 5.3
11500 3.5 38.3 155 10 5 9.7 5.3 | 1.3 34.3 135 12 6 9.7 5.3
11250 4.3 39.7 150 9 5 9.7 5.3 | 2.0 35.6 130 12 6 9.8 5.4
11000 5.0 41.0 140 9 5 9.8 5.4 | 2.8 37.0 130 12 6 11.1 6.1
10750 5.7 42.3 135 9 4 9.6 5.3 | 3.6 38.5 125 12 6 10.4 5.7
10500 6.4 43.5 125 8 4 9.3 5.1 | 4.3 39.7 120 11 6 8.9 4.9
10250 7.1 44.8 120 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 5.0 41.0 120 11 6 9.6 5.2
10000 7.8 46.0 115 8 4 10.1 5.6 | 5.8 42.4 115 11 6 10.5 5.8
9750 8.6 47.5 110 8 4 10.6 5.8 | 6.6 43.9 115 11 6 11.2 6.1
9500 9.4 48.9 110 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 7.4 45.3 110 11 5 10.0 5.5
9250 10.2 50.4 100 8 4 13.5 7.4 | 8.1 46.6 110 10 5 12.9 7.1
9000 12.1 53.8 105 7 4 44.7 24.5 | 9.9 49.8 110 9 4 40.9 22.4
8750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near Villa Grove, Colorado at:
North Latitude: 38 deg 16 min 03 sec
West Longitude: 105 deg 53 min 37 sec
Elevation: 7986 feet (2434 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613