Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 190435
SWODY2
SPC AC 190434

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NM/WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains
to the Big Bend region of west Texas. A few strong storms are
possible.

...NM/West TX...

Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the southwestern US
during the day2 period as an 80kt 500mb speed max translates into
far west TX by 21/00z. Downstream, a dominant surface ridge over the
MS Valley will reluctantly shift east allowing more favorable
moistening low-level trajectories off the western Gulf. Modified
Gulf air mass should advance up the Rio Grande Valley into extreme
southeast NM. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer
heating will occur across much of NM/far west TX such that a narrow
corridor of instability will develop along the western fringe of
moisture surge. Have lowered severe probs across TX to reflect a
weaker instability air mass than earlier expected. Even so,
scattered thunderstorms should evolve within warm advection zone
with more isolated activity expected along eastern fringe of strong
heating. Hail should be the primary severe threat with this
activity, and a considerable amount of convection may ultimately
evolve during the latter half of the period, as strong forcing for
ascent spreads across the TX South Plains.

..Darrow.. 04/19/2018

$$



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