Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

965
FXUS64 KFWD 230002 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
702 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018


.AVIATION...
00 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---MVFR ceiling/visibility potential at Waco and Arlington
overnight. Otherwise VFR with a low convective potential
Wednesday afternoon.

Diurnal showers/storms continue to dwindle in areal coverage east
of the TAF sites this evening. By 00-01 UTC, showers/storms as
well as VFR CU should all diminish and I`ll update sky trends at
the 03 UTC amendments.

For the overnight period, most model guidance advertises VFR at
just about all TAF sites. This seems probable given the weak low
level flow and displacement of the moisture to the south and west.
I`ve kept all TAF sites except GKY and ACT VFR (though the
MVFR potential is non-zero at remaining TAF sites) through the
period. At these two sites, it appears that any MVFR will be
intermittent and I`ve relegated MVFR cigs (FL015-FL020) to a
TEMPO group. MVFR BR may be possible at ACT due to nearby Lake
Waco. There`s a low risk for a shower or storm at TAF sties
on Wednesday, but at this time, the coverage is much too low to
mention in the TAFs. Impacts to Bonham and Cedar Creek
cornerposts, however, are possible as the coverage of activity may
be a bit greater to the east of I-35.

24

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 232 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Scattered showers and storms currently ongoing across the eastern
counties will slowly wane by sunset and after once daytime
heating is lost with only subtle forcing mechanism remaining
aloft. Til then, isolated heavier downpours can be expected in the
richer moisture east of I-35/35E. Light south-southeast winds
will continue the seasonably warm and muggy conditions across the
region overnight...fairly typical for late May across the area.
Spotty stratus will move northward across the area by sunrise
Wednesday. Some patchy light fog may form across Central Texas,
but is not expected to be dense or widespread with no travel
problems expected late tonight.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 232 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018/
/Wednesday through next Tuesday/

An ill-defined upper ridge positioned over the Plains will be
plagued with a distinct weakness extending from Northeast Texas
to the Northwestern Gulf for the next several days. The result
will be a daily recurrence of scattered diurnal convection in the
vicinity of this weakness. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be expected generally along and east of the Interstate 35/35W
corridor during the afternoon and early evening hours now through
Saturday, with the better chances occurring the farther east you
go. Instability will be sufficient for a few strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain, but weak flow aloft and
the lack of any appreciable wind shear should preclude the severe
threat.

During this time, warm and humid conditions can be expected as a
modified tropical airmass settles in, with high temperatures in
the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows around 70.

By Sunday, a tropical system in the Gulf will have lifted north
to the Central Gulf Coast region, placing North and Central Texas
in an enhanced region of subsidence. The usual result in with this
pattern is hot and dry. The Sunday through Tuesday portion of the
forecast reflects just that, with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 90s in the east to the upper 90s in the west, along with
little to no chances of rain. A few spots across the west or
southwest may reach triple digits by early next week.

A slight pattern shift is being advertised just beyond this
forecast package as northwest flow develops aloft. This may bring
a return of more unsettled weather around the middle to latter
part of next week.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  89  71  90  72 /  10  20   5  20  10
Waco                69  89  69  91  70 /  10   5   5  10  10
Paris               69  86  69  86  69 /  20  40  20  40  20
Denton              70  89  69  90  70 /  10  20   5  20  10
McKinney            69  87  69  88  69 /  20  30  10  30  10
Dallas              72  89  72  91  73 /  10  20   5  20  10
Terrell             69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  10  30  10
Corsicana           70  87  69  88  70 /  20  20   5  20  10
Temple              68  89  69  91  70 /  10   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       67  89  66  91  68 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/79



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.