Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 232029
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
329 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

The upper level low that brought showers and thunderstorms to the
region Saturday was over the Bootheel of Missouri this afternoon.
This low and its attendant surface low will continue to move
slowly east northeastward. The weather across North and Central
Texas has been pretty quiet today with northwest winds 10 to 20
with a few gusts over 25 mph across the northeastern third of the
forecast area. Moisture on the backside of the upper level low
has brought scattered to occasionally broken cumulus today.

Skies will be clearing across the northeast this evening leaving
mostly clear skies area wide tonight. As a surface ridge that
extended from northeastern Nebraska southwest into West Texas this
afternoon will move slowly east tonight. This will result in the
northwesterly winds decreasing to around 5 mph and becoming
northerly overnight. Lows will lower to middle 50s.


58

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through next Monday/

Northwest flow aloft will prevail for most of the forecast period
with a progressive and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
expected. Beginning with Tuesday, a shortwave ridge will move
overhead on while a surface ridge slides east of the forecast
area. Subsidence aloft combined with the return of south winds
will bring warmer weather to the area on Tuesday with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s in the northeast to the
mid 80s across the southwest. This will be short-lived, however,
as the upper ridge moves east of the region and a shortwave
trough approaches from the northwest. The shortwave trough will
be accompanied by a cold front and both features will affect the
area Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Scattered convection will develop west and northwest of the area
Tuesday evening along the cold front. A few of these storms may
be strong to severe, but storms will become undercut by the cold
front, which will mitigate the strong to severe potential as
activity spreads across North and Central Texas Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A broad area of showers and isolated storms combined
with cold advection behind the cold front will keep Wednesday high
temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below Tuesday`s readings. The
exception may be across the southern counties where a few hours of
good surface heating may occur before the front arrives.

Precipitation will continue spreading east and southeast across
the region through Wednesday evening with POPs ending from
northwest to southeast Wednesday night. Seasonably cool conditions
are expected overnight with lows generally in the 40s by daybreak
Thursday.

Another shortwave trough will drop quickly southeast through The
Plains Thursday, with its attendant cold front pushing south
through North and Central Texas Thursday night and Friday. The
atmosphere will most likely be too dry for precipitation to occur
but some virga with a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out as lift
associated with the shortwave arrives. Dry and breezy conditions
at the surface are expected Friday behind the front while another
shortwave ridge develops aloft. This should allow temperatures to
top out in the lower and middle 70s Friday despite the cool air
advection.

By Saturday, a large upper low will be deepening along the West
Coast while the ridge remains over the Plains, with both features
moving slowly and steadily east Saturday night and Sunday. The
resulting lee-side trough development will draw Gulf moisture
northward across North and Central Texas late Sunday and Monday,
setting the stage for more chances of showers and storms during
the early to middle part of next week.

30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 114 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/
VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Wednesday. A surface
ridge that extended from eastern Nebraska south southwest into
West Texas as of 17z will move east as a lee side trough develops.
This will result in northwest winds around 12 knots this
afternoon becoming northerly around 6 knots after sunset (01z)
and light easterly by midday Tuesday. Winds will probably be light
enough for a return to southerly flow by 10z Tuesday.  Scattered
cumulus around 3500 feet that are associated with the moisture on
the back side of the the upper level low over the Missouri
Bootheel will dissipate after sunset. With continued northwesterly
flow aloft, some scattered high clouds will occur.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  82  57  66  49 /   0   0  40  50  20
Waco                54  83  58  74  49 /   0   0  20  40  30
Paris               52  77  55  64  46 /   0   0  20  60  30
Denton              52  80  55  63  46 /   0   0  50  60  20
McKinney            52  79  55  65  46 /   0   0  40  60  20
Dallas              56  82  58  68  50 /   0   0  30  50  20
Terrell             53  81  56  69  47 /   0   0  20  40  30
Corsicana           54  79  57  72  49 /   0   0  20  30  30
Temple              54  84  58  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  40
Mineral Wells       53  82  53  62  44 /   0   0  50  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/58


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