Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 150216
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
916 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018


.UPDATE...
Temperatures along and north of a Graham to Sherman line will fall
close to 32 degrees by daybreak Sunday. The official forecast is
for 33 degrees at the airports, but some spots will likely reach
freezing. Given that it is mid-April, have decided to upgrade the
Freeze Watch that we had for Cooke, Grayson, Jack, Montague and
Young Counties to a Freeze Warning.

58

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/
The strong and gusty northwesterly winds that we saw today will
decrease to around 15 knots after sunset (~01z) as the atmosphere
decouples. Northwesterly winds will increase again Sunday morning
as deeper vertical mixing occurs. With 925 mb winds of 30 to 40
knots, expect sustained surface winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts of
25 to 30 knots Sunday morning. Winds are expected to start to
decrease by mid afternoon and speeds should decrease to around 15
knots by 23z. Winds will be light northerly after sunset Sunday.
Skies will remain mostly clear.

58

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 339 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/
A slow-moving cyclone over northeastern Kansas will gradually
drift northeast of the Missouri River this evening. Although
surface winds will diminish after sunset, the position of the
trough will maintain ample low-level cold advection overnight.
Wind speeds tonight will be stronger across our north and
northeast, which will be closer to the surface low. The edge of
the massive cloud shield associated with the storm system is
already grazing our northeastern zones, but the extent of this
cold-air CU will diminish this evening.

Steady winds will offset the radiational cooling potential of the
clear skies and dry air, but tonight`s temperatures will still
plummet into the 30s regionwide. There remains the possibility of
a late season freeze in our far north/northwest counties, but the
wind should keep surface layer well mixed. Temperatures may
briefly touch freezing, but the forecast will keep lows 33F or
above. The Freeze Watch will continue on both sides of the Red
River.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/
/Sunday through Saturday/

The large upper trough responsible for yesterday`s storms will
continue to move east on Sunday allowing upper level ridging to
begin spreading into the Plains. Strong northwest flow on the back
side of the trough will still remain in place across our region
and with winds 30-40 kt at 925 mb through early afternoon, we
will likely continue to see some breezy conditions through at
least early afternoon. After a cold start for this time of year,
we should warm into the lower 60s in most areas by afternoon with
diminishing winds into the evening hours.

The ridge axis will be just to our west on Monday afternoon with
another deep trough digging into the western U.S. Surface pressure
falls in the lee of the Rockies combined with strong high pressure
to our east will lead to a rapidly tightening pressure gradient
across North Texas Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will increase
in response and temperatures will rebound nicely into the upper
70s and lower 80s. There will also be an increase in low level
moisture with dewpoints climbing back into the lower 50s.

As the western trough swings into the northern Plains on Tuesday,
a deep surface cyclone will track through central Kansas. Our low
level flow will begin to veer as this surface low moves northeast.
In response, 850mb temps will warm to near 23C by Tuesday
afternoon west of I-35. This will support high temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s across our western counties. Low to mid 80s
can be expected elsewhere. A cold front will move south through
the Plains as the low continues to move east. The front will move
through North Texas Tuesday night. Given the lack of more
substantial moisture, the front should come through dry outside of
an increase in cloud cover.

The air behind this front won`t be much colder but it will be
drier. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Another strong system will move through the western U.S. and into
the Plains by the end of the week with rain/storm chances
increasing areawide for Friday into Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    38  62  45  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                36  65  43  80  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               33  55  37  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              33  61  40  78  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            34  59  39  75  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              39  62  46  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             36  60  41  76  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           36  62  44  77  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              36  67  45  80  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       34  64  42  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>093-100-
101.

&&

$$

58/24



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.