Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270420
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1120 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018


.AVIATION...
An upper ridge extending from the Plains into Southwest Texas
should keep things fairly quiet across North Texas for the rest of
the weekend. That said, we will need to keep an eye on any
convection which may develop to the east on Sunday as southwest
storm motion may allow a few storms to approach east gates of the
DFW TRACON late afternoon or evening. At this time, however, it
appears that activity will diminish before reaching any area
airports based on the latest guidance. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will persist with surface winds remaining out of the southeast at
5 to 10 KT.

30

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 944 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
Isolated showers continue to linger just to the east of the
Palestine/Athens areas where remnant outflow boundaries from
earlier convection remain. Grids have been updated to include
isolated showers through midnight for the southeastern-most
counties; otherwise clear skies and quiet weather can be expected
for the rest of the night. Temperatures will remain above normal
with lows in the 70s area-wide.


30

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 340 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Hot and mostly dry conditions prevail across the region this
afternoon with near-record high temperatures. Daily records at
DFW and Waco are 99 and 98, respectively, and while DFW may not
climb that high (currently 97), Waco has tied the record as of
315 PM and still has a chance to break it. Earlier today, isolated
thunderstorms developed within a region of ample instability
aided by weak ascent from a southward-propagating gravity wave.
However, over the course of the past couple of hours, mid-level
subsidence appears to have increased as the upper ridge continues
to build slowly eastward over the area. While this led to the
demise of earlier convection, it may not be enough to suppress
additional development across our southeastern counties this
afternoon where a highly unstable environment remains in place.
Areas from roughly Athens to Hearne and points southeastward may
be far enough removed from the influence of the upper ridge to
allow for initiation attempts as convective temperatures are
reached with over 4000 J/kg of CAPE in place. However, a rather
unimpressive cumulus field as of 3pm does not bode well for storm
development at this point. Some small hail and gusty winds would
be possible if any storms are able to get going in this area, and
have maintained some low PoPs through early evening as any
activity would dissipate with loss of heating. Overnight, it will
be dry and warm with low temperatures only falling into the
low/mid 70s.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 340 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
/Sunday through Saturday/

An upper level ridge just to our west is forecast to build
northeastward Sunday. There will be low chances of showers and
thunderstorms southeast of a Temple to Canton line Sunday;
otherwise, expect hot and rain-free weather. High temperatures
will be in the lower to middle 90s east and upper 90s to 102
degrees west. Heat index values will reach 98 to 104 degrees.

The upper level low currently over Nevada is expected to lift
northeast Sunday and Monday and move into the northern Plains on
Tuesday. This should help squash the northern part of the ridge
by Monday and heights across North and Central Texas should fall a
little. This may result in highs being a couple of degrees lower
Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be in the lower 90s east and in the
mid 90s to near 100 central and west. Lows will be in the upper
60s to mid 70s.

Upper ridging will build northeast across the forecast area
Wednesday through Friday as another upper level trough moves into
the West Coast. Hot and rain-free weather will prevail through
this period with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s and highs in the
mid and upper 90s east to near 105 degrees west. A Heat Advisory
may be needed across parts of the forecast area by Wednesday and
some of the northwestern counties will be at or near Excessive
Heat Warning criteria Thursday and Friday.

The aforementioned second upper level trough is expected to lift
out across the Northern Plains Saturday which will help re-orient
the upper ridge, but it looks like the heat wave will continue
into next weekend with little or no chances of rain.


58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  97  73  96  74 /   0  10   5   0   0
Waco                75  99  72  98  72 /   0  10   5   0   0
Paris               71  93  70  92  70 /   5  10   0   5   0
Denton              74  97  72  96  73 /   0  10   5   0   0
McKinney            73  94  71  94  71 /   0  10   5   0   0
Dallas              77  98  76  97  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Terrell             73  96  71  96  71 /   5  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           75  95  72  95  72 /   5  20   5   0   0
Temple              73  97  72  97  72 /   5  10   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  97  71  96  71 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/25


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