Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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884
FXUS64 KFWD 230800
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
300 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

North Texas will remain on the back side of a slow moving upper
low over the mid Mississippi River valley today keeping us in a
persistent northerly flow. Satellite imagery shows an extensive
area of cloud cover over eastern Oklahoma associated with rich
moisture in the 925-850 mb layer. Given the flow around the upper
low, some of this cloud cover will likely pivot into North Texas
this morning. Some of our Red River counties have become overcast
over the last hour and this trend is expected to continue through
the remainder of the morning. Areas along and east of I-35 and
north of I-20 may see several hours of cloud cover this morning
before skies clear this afternoon. It should be a nice day
otherwise with winds generally 10 mph or less and highs in the mid
70s in most locations.

By tonight, weak upper ridging will spread into the region as the
upper low to the east pushes farther away. Winds will become light
under mostly clear skies with overnight lows in the low to mid
50s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Onward/

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week as clear skies prevail
with a return to light east/southeast winds. This will be in
advance of a northern stream trough diving southward through the
Central Plains along with a formidable cold front. Temperatures
will climb into the upper 70s and 80s, with some mid or upper 80s
possible given some pre-frontal warming across our western zones.
Moisture quality ahead of the approaching system will be limited
due to its north-south trajectory, and surface dewpoints are only
expected to be in the 50s across much of the region prior of the
front`s arrival. Limited low-level moisture will also mean
limited instability, especially of the surface based variety.

By Tuesday evening, thunderstorms should begin developing along
the cold front north and west of the forecast area. There will
actually be some stronger instability in this area which should
help fuel some stronger storms initially. This convection will be
steered eastward into our forecast area throughout the evening by
mid-level westerlies, although it will encounter rapidly waning
instability the farther east it progresses. As a result, the
potential for any severe storms within our forecast area appears
quite low, but a strong storm or two could encroach on areas
roughly from Cisco to Bowie prior to weakening. Overnight, the
front will make continued southward progress through North Texas,
and an increase in shower activity will occur. A broad area of
rain with some embedded thunderstorms should exist behind the
front as isentropic ascent occurs in conjunction with dynamic
lift from the approaching trough. With meager instability, only
isolated occurrences of thunder are expected into the day
Wednesday. For many areas, the high temperature will occur in the
morning ahead of the front with temperatures falling or holding
steady in the 50s following its passage. We`ll keep PoPs highest
across North Texas throughout the day with a bit more uncertainty
in coverage across Central Texas. Activity should be tapering off
from north to south Wednesday night as the front moves into
southeastern Texas.

A dry day will follow on Thursday with temperatures remaining
slightly below normal. A second northern stream disturbance will
tail its predecessor through the Central Plains Thursday night and
Friday, delivering a second weaker cold front to North Texas.
Model runs over the past couple of days had been cutting off and
digging a stronger vort max into North Texas to accompany the
front which would have resulted in some higher rain chances during
the Friday morning time period. However, latest data suggests the
main energy will remain well northeast of us. Have only carried
low PoPs across our northeast for the chance of a couple showers
along the front`s passage early Friday. Otherwise, this will serve
to knock temperatures down a couple degrees for Friday afternoon.
At this time, the weather looks dry heading into next weekend
with increasing clouds and near-normal temperatures. Longer range
ensembles suggest the development of a deep western US trough by
early next week which would mean a bit more active weather in the
7-10 day time period to begin the month of May.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1129 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/
Other than some brief MVFR ceilings around sunrise at the
Metroplex TAF sites, VFR conditions will prevail through Monday
evening with scattered to occasionally broken clouds around
5000 ft.

A northwest wind will continue tonight through Monday at speeds
between 8 and 13 knots.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  56  82  58  65 /   0   0   0  40  60
Waco                78  54  84  56  76 /   0   0   0  20  30
Paris               69  52  77  55  66 /   0   0   0  30  60
Denton              74  52  81  54  62 /   0   0   5  50  60
McKinney            73  53  79  54  63 /   0   0   0  40  60
Dallas              76  57  82  59  67 /   0   0   0  40  60
Terrell             75  54  80  57  70 /   0   0   0  30  60
Corsicana           76  55  80  59  75 /   0   0   0  20  30
Temple              79  54  86  57  75 /   0   0   0  20  20
Mineral Wells       76  53  82  54  59 /   0   0   5  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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