Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240738
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
238 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

Ongoing convection to our north across the eastern Texas Panhandle
and northwestern Oklahoma will continue to steadily weaken this
morning. We`ll keep an eye on the exhausted outflow, which
currently stretches from Hollis to Elk City and Enid, since this
could serve as a focus for some isolated storm development off to
our north and west. If anything does develop, it seems more
likely activity would preferentially begin building southward into
the richer theta-e air across the Edwards Plateau. As a result,
we`ve just painted some silent 10% PoPs across our western
counties for the time being.

Otherwise, our persistent mid-level weakness will finally meander
a bit farther eastward as shortwave ridging to our south tries to
nose in a bit more today. As this feature drifts eastward into
Louisiana and Arkansas, it will begin to also guide the better
thunderstorm chances into the Arklatex. We`ll hold on to low
20-30% PoPs east of I-35 this afternoon given the moist-axis in
place, but convective coverage looks to be a bit lower than past
days. With 25-30 degree surface dewpoint depressions, any of the
stronger storms will be capable of producing some gusty winds as
their cores collapse. With the nearly rinse and repeat forecast
continuing today, high temperatures will be quite similar to
Wednesday.

Any activity will diminish quickly around sunset, leaving us with
another quiet overnight period with lows in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

Carlaw

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Friday through next week/

The upper level ridge will dominate through this period with low
rain chances Friday through Saturday, and then a dry forecast
likely through next week. Hot temperatures are expected for the
foreseeable future.

The upper level ridge will begin to strengthen across the region
on Friday, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will still
be possible east of Interstate 35 during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Seabreeze convection may also move into our
southern counties late in the afternoon and/or early evening
hours. A complex of storms that organizes in Oklahoma during the
evening hours will make a push south and may cross the Red River
in the late evening or overnight hours. This complex should be
decaying as it moves into North Texas with dissipation expected
before sunrise. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain should be the
main hazards with this complex. For Saturday, have left slight
chance PoPs almost everywhere in the morning without knowing if
and where residual boundaries from this complex will be traveling.
For now, afternoon rain chances are confined to our eastern
counties, but depending on leftover boundaries from the morning
complex, rain chances may need to be adjusted. If storms develop
in the afternoon hours, a few strong or marginally severe storms
are possible producing small hail and strong winds.

The upper level ridge will continue to build across the Southern
Plains this weekend, ending rain chances and resulting in hot
temperatures. A 5-10 mph wind in the afternoon hours may provide
some relief from the heat, but afternoon highs in the mid 90s to
around 100 degrees will be common this holiday weekend. Triple
digit temperatures of 100-102 degrees are in the forecast
Saturday and Sunday for locations around a Breckenridge to Graham
to Mineral Wells area. Heat index values at this time do not
appear to near Heat Advisory criteria due to afternoon mixing of
drier air to the surface, but that still won`t take away from the
potential impacts of the heat on outdoor residents.

The axis of the upper level ridge will originate in Mexico and
stretch northwest across Texas, with southwest flow occurring
across the western part of the state. The dryline will remain
across this area, and daily convection may develop near this
feature starting Sunday. At this time, the upper level ridge
situated to the east of the dryline should keep this activity
from making any valid attempts at moving as far as east as North
Texas, but later in the week, if the ridge is weakened by a
stronger disturbance moving through the Plains, we may need to
reassess rain chances.

JLDunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1139 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/
No major aviation weather concerns are anticipated across the
Metroplex TAF sites through Thursday evening with generally VFR
conditions and a south to southeast wind at speeds less than 12
knots.

The weather in Waco will not be much different, but will be a
chance of some brief MVFR ceilings just after sunrise.

A few storms may develop around the region Thursday afternoon,
but any storms that form will most likely remain east of the TAF
sites since large scale subsidence will be increasing from the
west through the day.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  73  95  73  97 /  10   5  10  20  20
Waco                91  70  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
Paris               90  69  91  70  92 /  20  10  20  30  20
Denton              91  70  95  72  97 /  10   5  10  30  20
McKinney            90  70  93  71  95 /  20   5  10  30  20
Dallas              91  74  95  74  97 /  10   5  10  20  20
Terrell             90  71  93  70  95 /  20  10  20  20  20
Corsicana           88  71  93  71  93 /  20  10  20  20  20
Temple              90  68  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       91  69  95  70  98 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/90


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