000
FXUS64 KFWD 240601
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
101 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

Dew point temperatures in the lower-mid 60s have returned as
anticipated in advance of our next developing storm system well
west of the forecast area across the Intermountain West and
Rockies. This will bring that humid feel to the environment
through the mid week period unfortunately. The cap remained quite
strong this past afternoon and evening. Outside of a brief strong
storms in the Big Country, nothing had a chance to get
going...especially east of US-281 where the base of a strong cap
based around 815mb (per latest 00z FWD sounding) remains
entrenched. The surface cold front that moved into southern
Oklahoma on Tuesday has now retreated as a warm front back north
across the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Oklahoma. This trend will
continue through Thursday, as the upper ridge strengthens over
North and Central Texas and the focus of surface and cyclogenesis
and strong ascent remain well displaced north of the area across
the Central High Plains. The nose of warm and moist advection will
also be displaced to north of I-40 from northern Oklahoma into
Nebraska with mainly warm, breezy, and humid weather across our
area.

Each day the elevated mixed layer/cap aloft will be slightly more
elevated and relatively weaker to allow for low thunderstorm
probabilities across the Red River Valley into the far northeast
counties. The upper ridge overhead and associated subsidence will
likely cause these to be of the general variety, though a brief
more robust cell with gusty winds and possibly small hail can`t be
completely ruled out.

Lows each morning will remain in the 60s with highs generally
warming to between 75 and 80 degrees due to the depth of low level
moisture underneath the cap deepening with less opportunity to
mix out and allow strong insolation. Stratus and patchy light fog
will be the norm each morning as southerly winds weaken to below
10 mph with mostly cloudy and breezy afternoons with speeds 10 to
15 kts with occasional gusts between 20-25 mph.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

The latter half of week through the weekend will be very warm,
humid and unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms.

A strong low level warm air advection pattern will remain in place
Thursday ahead of a deep upper trough over the Desert Southwest.
Subtle shortwave energy emerging out of the base of the main
trough may spark a few showers and thunderstorms across the
northwest and northern zones through the day Thursday while the
remainder of the forecast area will stay capped and rain-free. The
only exception will be a few warm air advection sprinkles or
light showers. Storm chances will increase Thursday night once the
upper trough lifts towards the Central Plains, dragging a dryline
and weak front into the western CWA. Some storms may become
strong to severe, especially across the western zones where shear
and instability will be the most favorable. Storms will progress
eastward across the region Friday with the passing trough axis.
There is a medium chance for strong to severe storms on Friday,
especially east of the I-35 corridor during the afternoon where
the air will be the most unstable. There will be a lull in
precipitation Friday night, but another upper low will move
quickly on heels of the departing system, bringing rain/storm
chances to the region just in time for the weekend. This second
system will follow a similar track as the late week system, with
storm chances increasing from west to east Saturday and decreasing
in similar fashion on Sunday with the arrival of a weak cold
front. Some strong to severe storms will be possible given the
projected shear and instability. The cold front will likely stall
across the CWA Sunday night through Monday, warranting at least
some low PoPs. Rain chances will temporarily end or decrease
significantly Tuesday with brief ridging aloft, but the active
split flow pattern will likely persist through the end of April.
The progressive nature of these system should keep the overall
flood threat low, but recent heavy rainfall and some rivers
currently near flood stage could result in some localized
flooding issues.

Temperatures Thursday through Tuesday will be near or slightly
above seasonal normals with highs ranging from the upper 70s to
middle 80s. Lows will stay generally in the 60s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

All airports through the D10 airspace are forecast to drop into
low MVFR by 09z, with Waco Regional Airport already seeing high
MVFR cigs AoA 2 kft already. The challenge arises with whether
cigs temporarily go IFR between 13z-17z like the LAMP/GLAMP/and
CONSSHORT guidances advertise, or if these conditions are more
brief (or occur at all) like the RAP/HRRR.

With these uncertainties and low confidence on evolution of cigs
in mind, I`ve split the difference by only advertising a 2-hr
TEMPO group of IFR with MVFR vsbys between 12z-15z. I`ll adjust
trends as guidance comes more in line with actual evolution of
cigs later this morning.

S/SE winds will prevail around 10 kts or less, though a few gusts
to between 15-20 kts will be possible by this afternoon.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  79  68  81  70 /  10   5  40  80  20
Waco                68  80  70  79  69 /   0   0  20  80  20
Paris               64  79  67  76  67 /  30  20  30  90  40
Denton              67  78  66  83  68 /  20  10  50  70  10
McKinney            68  78  68  79  68 /  20  10  40  80  20
Dallas              68  79  69  81  70 /  10   5  30  80  20
Terrell             66  79  68  78  68 /  10   5  20  90  30
Corsicana           68  80  70  81  70 /   0   0  10  80  30
Temple              67  80  69  80  69 /   0   0  20  70  20
Mineral Wells       66  81  66  86  68 /  20   5  60  50  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$