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000
FXUS64 KFWD 141845
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
145 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1203 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/
/This afternoon through Monday afternoon/

An upper level ridge will remain in place through the afternoon,
keeping the weather warm and rain-free. Vigorous boundary layer
mixing will continue to lift and scatter morning stratus,
resulting in a mostly sunny afternoon. Temperatures will have no
problem reaching the 80s in most locations. Some lower 90s are
also likely across the far western zones where morning low clouds
were absent. Breezy southerly winds will continue in the 10 to 20
mph range along with frequent higher gusts.

The upper ridge axis will gradually shift eastward tonight in
response to a strong low pressure system approaching from the
west. Gulf moisture will continue to be drawn northward as surface
low pressure deepens across the Central High Plains ahead of the
upper system. Therefore, humid and warm conditions will continue
through the night with stratus returning before sunrise Monday.
Lows tonight will be very mild, generally in the lower and middle
60s.

Monday will be mostly cloudy with a few warm air advection
sprinkles possible. Although large scale lift will gradually
increase through the day Monday, a strong cap of warm air aloft
will hinder thunderstorm development through the afternoon. There
is a low chance for a few elevated storms across the far western
zones in the late afternoon but the main thunderstorm activity
will still be west of the region across the Big Country. The
better storm chances will not arrive in North Texas and parts of
Central Texas until Monday night, as detailed in the long term
discussion below.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The forecast discussion below remains on track. The greatest
potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will fall
between 8PM-2AM Monday night, predominantly along/north of I-20
and west of I-35. Isolated hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards. It is still very likely that storms weaken as
they approach the I-35 corridor Monday night due to strong
capping. There is a low chance for storms to redevelop and or
reintensify across our far eastern counties late Tuesday morning
into early Tuesday afternoon before exiting to the east. It is far
more likely that this activity is east of our forecast area before
re-strengthening. Most locations will see less than 0.15" of rain
with this event with many remaining dry, especially over portions
of Central Texas. See the discussion below for more details
regarding the remainder of the long-term forecast period.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Onward/

By Monday evening, a robust dryline/Pacific front structure in
West Texas should be initiating deep convection mainly upstream
of the forecast area with aid from upper-level ascent. This
initial supercellular activity is expected to undergo some upscale
growth while progressing eastward into North Texas later in the
evening. However, upon doing so, it should encounter rather strong
capping as the lift required to erode such strong inhibition will
largely remain displaced north of the forecast area in the
Central Plains. As a result, some weakening seems very likely the
farther east storms progress, with convection largely expected to
fall below severe limits around or perhaps before the time it has
advanced into the I-35 corridor late Monday night. Before then,
there will at least be some potential for isolated strong or
severe convection in western North Texas, largely west of I-35 and
north of I-20 late Monday evening. The eventual convective mode
(which is still uncertain) will dictate the possible hazards,
with isolated discrete cells maintaining a hail threat while
growth into linear segment(s) would increase a potential wind
threat. This system is not expected to be a heavy rain or flood
producer, with most areas likely seeing less than 0.25" of rain.

The Pacific front may slow or stall across portions of
East/Central Texas on Tuesday which could allow for some
redevelopment and/or reintensification of activity across far
eastern portions of the CWA. All activity should finally move off
to the east in the afternoon with much drier air arriving within
westerly near-surface flow. This will lead to a warmer and rain-
free midweek period, with highs climbing into the 80s and even
lower 90s by Wednesday.

There is still an above-average amount of uncertainty during the
late week period and heading into next weekend, but guidance has
come into slightly better alignment on the arrival of a cold front
during the Thursday/Friday time frame. Some convective chances
will probably exist immediately along this boundary as it
arrives, although the degree of pre-frontal moisture return and
amount of upper-level ascent are still uncertain, and those
factors will end up dictating rain coverage with the initial
frontal passage. The greater rain chances will probably lag a
couple of days behind the front`s arrival, as secondary
disturbances result in a robust overrunning regime above the cool
post-frontal airmass. While this setup will largely mitigate the
risk for severe convection aside from perhaps some hail, it could
bring another bout of heavy rainfall to some areas with an
attendant flood risk. There are still large discrepancies as to
where the frontal boundary may eventually stall and where a
heavier rain axis could materialize, and these details likely
won`t be known for at least a few more days.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1203 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Stratus continues to lift and scatter late this morning, leaving a
mostly clear sky the majority of the day. Stratus will return in
the pre-dawn hours Monday, reaching Waco between 08Z and 09Z and
an hour or two later across the Metroplex TAF sites. Low level
moisture will be deeper than it has been the last couple of days,
so MVFR ceilings will linger through early afternoon. Ceilings
will lift above 3000 ft early Monday afternoon but will likely not
scatter out through the afternoon.

A breezy south wind will remain through Monday in the 12 to 16
knot range along with occasional gusts between 20 and 25 knots.

A cap of warm air aloft should keep all storms well west of the
region through Monday afternoon but some storms may reach the
Bowie cornerpost around sunset. The better storm chances across
the TAF sites will be Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  80  68  86  65 /   0  10  50  10   0
Waco                66  79  68  86  67 /   0  10  30  20   0
Paris               65  78  65  83  65 /   0   5  40  40   5
Denton              65  79  65  85  59 /   0  10  60  10   0
McKinney            66  79  66  84  63 /   0   5  50  20   0
Dallas              68  81  69  86  66 /   0   5  50  20   0
Terrell             65  79  66  84  65 /   0   5  40  20   0
Corsicana           67  81  68  84  69 /   0   0  30  20   0
Temple              65  81  67  86  66 /   0   5  30  10   0
Mineral Wells       66  82  64  87  57 /   0  10  60   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$