National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 160826
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
326 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1258 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

An upper low over the front range of the Rockies will propagate
east through the Central Plains overnight through Tuesday. The
strongest forcing for ascent will remain to our north, keeping
most convection well north of the Red River. That being said,
isolated storms will remain possible during the overnight hours as
the strongest ascent arrives. A strong capping inversion will
keep these storms elevated in nature and likely sub-severe.

A surface low will accompany the upper level system, together
dragging a Pacific front east through the region Tuesday morning.
Scattered rain showers and an isolated storm or two will be
possible along and ahead of the front, but precipitation should
come to an end Tuesday afternoon as the upper low heads for the
Midwest and subsidence strengthens in its wake. There is a narrow
window where a surface based storm or two may develop late
morning/early afternoon over the far eastern counties before
subsidence takes over, which could pose a brief hail/damaging wind
threat, but the overall probability of severe weather still
remains low.

The front will stall just east of the I-35 corridor Tuesday
afternoon, and retreat to the northwest Tuesday evening.
Conditions will likely end up being warmer in the northwest side
of the boundary where drier air and sunnier skies will exist.
Highs in the mid 80s can be expected Tuesday afternoon generally
along and west of I-35, with lower 80s east of I-35. The
retreating front will draw moisture and low clouds north through
the area Tuesday night, keeping lows well into the 60s. Another
warm one is in store Wednesday with highs in the mid and upper
80s.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/

/Wednesday night through Monday/

Zonal flow aloft will set up the second half of the week,
resulting in a deepening surface lee trough across the Central
High Plains. An influx of Gulf moisture, coupled with the passing
of a few shortwaves, may produce a few showers Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Better storm chances will arrive when a
dryline and cold front move into North Texas Thursday
afternoon/night. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of
these surface features and very warm temperatures (highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s) will yield plenty of instability in the
warm sector. Models are also indicating there will be enough shear
to sustain updrafts likely resulting in strong to severe storms.
Right now it appears the biggest threat for storms will be north
of the I-20 corridor but this is all dependent on just how far the
dryline mixes east and how far south the cold front moves. Storm
chances will temporarily end Thursday night/Friday morning with
the arrival of slightly drier air. However, models continue to
point towards an overrunning pattern setting up Friday night
through the weekend which will produce numerous showers and
thunderstorms and a potential for heavy rainfall. We will keep
high PoPs through Saturday and decrease them Sunday when the
shortwave trough axis passes to the east. The start of the work
week should be rain-free but it does look like more rain will
return by the middle of next week.

Temperatures will be warm Wednesday night and Thursday with lows
in the 60s to around 70 and highs from the mid 80s to the lower
90s. Temperatures will be cooler on the weekend due to cloud
cover, cold air advection behind the front, and plenty of rain-
cooled air. The coolest day will be Sunday with highs staying in
the 60s and lows Sunday night falling into the 40s and lower 50s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1258 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

A 45kt low level jet at 925mb has ushered in a stratus deck area-
wide. MVFR ceilings can hence be expected through Tuesday
morning. A Pacific front will shift winds to the southwest around
midday Tuesday and scour the cloud deck, improving conditions to
VFR Tuesday afternoon. The front will retreat to the northwest
Tuesday evening, allowing more MVFR ceilings to return after 06Z
Tuesday night.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  70  87  69  90 /  20   0   0   5  40
Waco                85  70  85  69  88 /  20   0   5  10  40
Paris               81  67  83  66  85 /  30   5   5  10  40
Denton              84  66  86  65  89 /  20   0   0   5  40
McKinney            86  67  86  67  88 /  30   0   0   5  40
Dallas              87  70  87  69  90 /  20   0   0   5  40
Terrell             83  69  84  68  86 /  20   5   0  10  40
Corsicana           83  69  85  70  88 /  20   5   5  10  40
Temple              85  68  86  68  88 /  20   0   5  10  40
Mineral Wells       86  63  89  65  92 /   5   0   0   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$