Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 170423 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1123 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at the TAF sites through
06z Wednesday. As a lee side trough continues to deepen, southerly
winds at 15 to 20 knots will increase to 20 to 25 knots by 15z
Tuesday and some gusts over 30 knots are likely. There will be a
50-55 knot southwesterly low level jet overnight but the NAM
continues to be the lone model that tries to bring some MVFR
ceilings close to and just east of KACT 12-16z Tuesday. As
decoupling is not expected to occur Tuesday evening, wind speeds
and gusts are only expected to decrease slightly after sunset
Tuesday.

Extended forecast...A cold front is forecast to cross the Red
River between 06z and 08z Wednesday and move through the
Metroplex TAF sites 10-12z. Winds will shift to the north at
15 to 20 knots with the frontal passage. Some MVFR stratus may
spread into KACT by 09z Wednesday.


58

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 926 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/
With southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph and some gusts over 25 mph
possible, overnight low temperatures will be 10 to nearly 20
degrees higher than they were this morning. Dewpoints Sunday
evening were in the teens and 20s but with the southerly winds
having returned, they were in the mid 30s northwest to lower 50s
southeast this evening. As low pressure deepens further on
Tuesday, the pressure gradient will tighten across North and
Central Texas. This will result in southerly winds increasing to
15 to 25 mph with some gusts over 35 mph likely across the central
and western zones. We will be near Wind Advisory Tuesday across
parts of the forecast area. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower
80s east to the lower 90s northwest.


58

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 349 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Mostly clear skies and breezy conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the evening into the overnight hours. Upper level
ridging is currently centered just to our west. A strong shortwave
trough is moving through the western U.S. though and this system
will continue to induce pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies
through tonight. As it does, the pressure gradient will remain
tight across our region resulting in breezy conditions. The strong
southerly flow will allow moisture to steadily increase across the
region through tonight and we should see considerably warmer
temperatures headed into Tuesday morning. Most areas will remain
in the mid to upper 50s for lows with persistent southerly winds
15 to 25 mph.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 349 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/
A progressive springlike pattern will prevail this week but with
the storm track more poleward than usual for mid to late April. As
the cyclone over the Great Lakes heads toward the Atlantic, a
brief period of unseasonably strong ridging will result in the
warmest day of the week on Tuesday. Soaring 850mb temps and a
westerly component to gusty southerly winds will push the mercury
into the 80s regionwide Tuesday afternoon. A West Texas dryline
will make a surge eastward but will remain well west of our area.
But with temperatures topping 90F in our far western zones,
relative humidity values may fall below 20 percent.

The proximity of the dryline may ease surface wind speeds a bit
toward peak heating. But with well above normal temperatures and
very low humidity, fire initiation will be possible Tuesday
afternoon even if green vegetation limits spread. Despite
extraordinary fire weather conditions on Friday, only a couple of
small fires occurred across our western counties. It is important
to emphasize that just northwest of our area of responsibility,
there is a sharp gradient from no drought designation to extreme
drought (D3) over a distance of only 30 miles, a difference of
four categories. Until significant rainfall occurs, West Texas
will remain highly susceptible to large fires. But within our
portion of western North Texas, vegetation has quickly recovered
from the recent freezing temperatures. And even though spring
rainfall has so far been below normal, adequate fuel moisture in
the green warm-season vegetation should mitigate fire weather
concerns.

The next storm system has made landfall in the Pacific Northwest and
will quickly push our upper ridge to the east. Although this storm
track will be well north of Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday, it
will push a cold front deep into the Southern Plains. Even with a
couple of days (Sunday and Monday) of breezy south winds, rich
Gulf moisture won`t return to Central and East Texas until
Wednesday. The cold front will move through much of North Texas
without any fanfare. But as its parent upper trough heads toward
the Mississippi Valley, it may get hung up in our southeastern
zones. Though surface dew points will be in the 60s, the moisture
will be shallow, and without upper support, only a few isolated
showers or thunderstorms would result Wednesday afternoon in our
southeastern zones. Unlike many of the cold fronts so far this
month, the cold advection behind this front will be weak, and
daytime temperatures will be near normal both Wednesday and
Thursday.

The subsequent storm system will take a more southerly track
through the Desert Southwest. As early as Thursday afternoon, it
will aid in the development of a dryline across eastern New Mexico
where showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop at peak
heating. While the flow will allow these convective elements to
race east and northeastward Thursday night, it would be downstream
ripples aloft and their new (elevated) development farther east
that may reach our far western zones early Friday.

Although the midweek front will have once again pushed the mT air
well offshore, and the low-levels may remain mostly cloud-free,
considerable mid and high cloudiness will stream across the
region, likely capping Friday`s temperatures in the low to mid
70s. Another round of afternoon convection will develop along the
dryline, which will set up east of the New Mexico border. The
proximity of the upper trough should result in more vigorous
thunderstorms than the previous day, but even into the evening
hours, this activity should remain west of our area.

As the upper low spreads large-scale forcing for ascent downstream
of the ongoing convection, a complex of storms will likely survive
overnight into Saturday morning as it invades North and Central
Texas. While embedded strong storms will be possible during the
day Saturday, a rain-cooled surface layer with only modest lapse
rates aloft may temper the severe potential. Much of the region
can handle heavy rain without significant flooding concerns, but
as anomalously high PW values spread across areas along and east
of the I-35 corridor, and the flow promotes training echoes, there
could be some flooding issues.

The low will be slow to exit the region, and some low PoPs in our
eastern zones will linger into early next week. Northerly flow
and low-level cold advection will result in unseasonably cool day
on Sunday, but with daytime temperatures not nearly as cold as the
two preceding weekends.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  85  61  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                58  84  61  80  50 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               52  80  59  75  48 /   0   0   5   5   0
Denton              57  86  58  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            56  82  60  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              59  85  62  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             57  83  61  77  51 /   0   0   5   5   0
Corsicana           57  82  61  78  53 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              57  84  61  80  52 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       56  90  58  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/24



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