000
FXUS64 KFWD 172350
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
650 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The only change to the public forecast is the addition of patchy
fog across portions of North and Central Texas through sunrise
tomorrow morning thanks to abundant surface moisture currently in
place. Temperatures will gradually fall into the upper 60s and low
70s across the region through the overnight hours into tomorrow
morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
will return through tomorrow afternoon as an approaching cold
front from the north sweeps through the region. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible along this frontal boundary as it
pushes south, with large hail and damaging winds as the main
threats. Northerly winds will allow temperatures to cool into the
low to mid 50s across North Texas through Friday morning.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tomorrow Night/

Weather Highlights:
-Isolated storms this afternoon
-Severe storms Tomorrow Afternoon

Rest of This Afternoon & Tonight:

A warm and muggy day will continue through the rest of today
thanks to the persistent southerly flow across the region.
Yesterday`s front has retreated westward, and has stalled just
west of our region. This boundary will act much like a dryline
this afternoon with significantly drier air west of the dryline
and moist conditions to the east.

Although no major forcing for ascent will be atop our region,
diurnally driven convection may develop this afternoon across the
Big Country. If they do develop, storm motion would take it to the
east/northeast into our western-most counties. For that reason,
we`ll continue to advertise a minimal potential for a thunderstorm
or two. Any strong convection will likely occur just west of our
region with a weakening trend expected as storms shift east, away
from the boundary. Storm chances will quickly dissipate after
sunset as atmospheric stability sets in.

Tonight will be fairly quiet across the region with partly cloudy
skies in place. Given the moist environment, temperatures will
likely stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the night.

Tomorrow - Tomorrow Night:

A more active weather day is expected on Thursday as the pseudo-
dryline and a cold front converge atop our region. Throughout the
morning hours, the cold front will be progressing southward into
our region, remaining precipitation free. During the afternoon,
sufficient daytime heating is expected for convection to develop.
Given the warm surface temperatures, instability will build to
3000+ J/kg, increasing the threat for severe thunderstorm
development. Severe storms would mainly contain a large hail and
damaging wind threat as they progress east/southeast along the
cold front. With instability waning after sunset, thunderstorms
will gradually lose strength later in the afternoon/early evening.

Northerly winds will ensue behind the front, remaining below 15
mph through the rest of the night. This will help cool overnight
temperatures into the lower to mid 50s along and north of I-20.
60s are most likely south of I-20.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/
/Friday Through Mid Next Week/

By daybreak Friday, the aforementioned cold front is expected to
be slowly drifting or stalled near or just north of the Hill
Country as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper-level flow.
Moisture advection overtop of the shallow frontal surface should
quickly yield widespread dense cloud cover early Friday. By the
afternoon, an approaching weak shortwave trough embedded within
the zonal flow aloft...in combination with the established
isentropic ascent regime...will lead to isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the 850mb
front, which is expected to still be draped across North Texas
(near the Red River). Rain/thunderstorm chances will increase
Friday night in response to increasing large scale lift associated
with another weak shortwave shifting across Central/South Texas.

While buoyancy will be somewhat limited, there should be
sufficient elevated instability for convective elements/embedded
thunderstorms capable of producing small hail late Friday into
early Saturday. With PWAT values near or exceeding the 90th
percentile of the daily climatological mean, locally heavy
rainfall may lead to flooding impacts on Saturday, especially
wherever higher convective rain rates materialize. The prevailing
drought and drier antecedent conditions in the southwest portions
of our forecast area will likely limit most flood concerns in this
area. However, ponding or minor nuisance flooding cannot be
completely ruled out. Conversely, given the degree of soil
saturation in areas east of the I-35 corridor and current
reservoir conditions, rapid surface runoff and minor river
flooding issues are likely to emerge this weekend. In general, 1.5
to 2.5 inches of rainfall is expected with isolated higher totals
possible. There is a 30-40% chance that total accumulated
rainfall exceeds 3 inches in a few different areas across North
and Central Texas.

Increasing subsidence in the wake of the departing shortwave
should bring an end to rain chances by Sunday afternoon with drier
conditions prevailing through early next week. In contrast to the
unseasonably hot temperatures in the short term period,
temperatures will fall from near/slightly below normal to as much
as 15-20 degrees cooler than 1991-2020 averages by Sunday. This is
due to weak cold air advection behind the cold front in
combination with rain chances and extensive cloud cover. The
surface high will shift east over the Lower Mississippi Valley
Monday, allowing for onshore flow to return. The return of
southerly winds and ample sunshine early next week will lead to a
quick warm up with highs back into the 70s and lower 80s by
Tuesday.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR Ceilings/Storm Potential Into Tomorrow Afternoon.

VFR conditions will continue through much the evening before
ceilings gradually fall to MVFR through tomorrow morning starting
across Waco, reaching the D10 terminals a few hours later.
Guidance continues to keep ceilings within the MVFR category, but
there is a low chance (~10%) for a few locations to fall to IFR.

A cold front will be pushing through the region tomorrow
afternoon, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing
along the leading edge. These storms shouldn`t linger too long and
should clear the D10 terminals by around 01-02z. Gusty outflow
winds will be possible out ahead of this front, with winds
remaining from the north/northeast through tomorrow evening.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  88  59  73  60 /   5  40  30  10  60
Waco                71  86  63  76  65 /   5  40  30  10  30
Paris               67  83  57  69  55 /   5  40  50  20  60
Denton              68  87  55  70  56 /   0  30  20  10  70
McKinney            69  86  57  71  58 /   5  40  30  20  70
Dallas              71  89  60  73  62 /   5  40  30  10  60
Terrell             68  85  60  74  61 /   5  40  40  10  50
Corsicana           70  86  64  79  65 /   5  30  30  10  40
Temple              70  86  63  79  64 /   5  30  30  10  30
Mineral Wells       68  89  55  71  58 /   5  30  20  10  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$