National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KAPX 240459
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1259 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool tonight and Wednesday, turning warmer Friday into the
  weekend.

- Active weather this weekend with a chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Early this afternoon, mid-upper level shortwave trough is
centered just to our northwest across northern Ontario, the
western UP into northwest WI. This feature progged to cross
northern Michigan over the next 12 hours. Meanwhile, associated
elongated surface low stretched from Quebec southwestward into
the WI will follow suit across the Great Lakes region. Intial
cold front associated with this system has already crossed
northern MI with focus on a secondary front currently sinking
south across the eastern UP and northern Lake Michigan. This
boundary is progged to slide southeast through northwest lower
late this afternoon into mid- evening. A push of much colder air
anticipated behind that cold front tonight through Wednesday.

Forecast Details:

Showers/storms into this evening; Marginal severe risk: Pre-frontal
isolated to scattered showers continue to work their way across
portions of northern Michigan as of early this afternoon with more
sun north and more clouds south. Instability certainly struggling,
as expected, but continues to be progged up to a couple hundred J/kg
by later this afternoon across northern lower MI. Wind fields remain
much stronger with pre-frontal 50-60 kts of deep layer bulk shear.
Chances for showers and a few storms remain the rule through mid-
late evening with those chances sinking south across the CWA with
time. Suppose there remains low chances of strong/severe wind gusts
and small hail if any stronger storms are able to develop -- again
aided by sufficient deep layer shear, a relatively dry sub-cloud
layer and steep mid-level lapse rates. This threat across far
southern reaches for the forecast area diminishes by 10pm or so.

Cool tonight through Wednesday: Beyond the aforementioned cold
frontal passage, strong cold air advection will be the rule tonight
through Wednesday on the heels of occasionally breezy northwest
winds. This afternoon`s temps of the upper 40s north to mid-60s
south will come crashing down overnight with lows by Wednesday
morning expected to span the 20s area-wide (wind chills ranging from
the upper single digits to upper teens for Wednesday`s bus stop
time). While plentiful sun is anticipated for Wednesday, highs
struggle to reach much past the mid-40s for most -- coolest near
Lake Huron as winds take on a more northeasterly component.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A ridge of high pressure builds over the Midwest as a trough digs
across the Plains. This will result in quiet and mild weather for
Northern Michigan (potentially leading to fire weather concerns) to
end the week. By the weekend, a low pressure and its associated
surface low are expected to develop in concurrence of the
aforementioned trough and will track across the upper Midwest. This
will result in in active weather for Northern Michigan and a chance
for thunderstorms for this upcoming weekend.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Active weather this weekend with chance of thunderstorms: An upper-
level low and its associated surface low pressure are expected to
track northward from the central Plains to the upper Midwest.
Showers continue to appear likely, with a chance for some embedded
thunderstorms. Looking at guidance, consistency in decent CAPE
advecting into the region continues to make this setup something to
keep an eye on. Along with showers, winds will increase for the
weekend with the potential that some areas could see some pretty
substantial wind gusts, especially Saturday. However, with this
setup still being days away, stay tuned as we continue to fine tune
the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Widespread MVFR cigs will improve rapidly from north to south as the
night progresses, with VFR conditions at all terminals expected by
Wednesday morning.  A few rain or snow showers are possible before
the clearing occurs, especially at KAPN.  North winds will gust over
20kts at times, gradually dissipating by Wednesday afternoon/evening
as the gradient relaxes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC