Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200442
NCZ000-200615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200442Z - 200615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least a marginal risk for isolated strong to damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will exist over a portion of
eastern NC next couple hours. Unless storms begin to show a more
substantial tendency for organization, a WW will probably not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...A band of storms has recently increased from the Gulf
Stream into a portion of southeast NC and appears to be developing
along a pre-frontal convergence boundary. Adjusted for surface
temperatures and dewpoints, RAP forecast soundings suggest the
storms are probably slightly elevated above a shallow surface stable
layer, and objective analysis indicates MLCAPE around 500 J/kg.
Storms remain embedded within very strong largely unidirectional
wind profiles with 55 kt 0-6 km shear. Based on current
north-northeast storm motions, 0-1 km storm relative helicity
remains around 150-200 m2/s2 despite strong low-level speed shear.
The marginal thermodynamic environment should remain a primary
limiting factor. Nevertheless, trends will continue to be monitored
for potential organization.

..Dial/Dean.. 04/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON   34037740 35367746 36227701 35977592 34597625 34037740




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