Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 201453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201453
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-201700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Areas affected...Northeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201453Z - 201700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated convection across northern Nebraska this morning
continues to persist and move into a more favorable environment.
Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of overnight/early morning convection
supported by warm air advection across the mid-Missouri Valley, a
favorable corridor for supporting severe weather is developing
across eastern Nebraska. A lead shortwave trough evident in water
vapor imagery is moving across northern Nebraska this morning aiding
in convective development.  If thunderstorms are able to persist as
they move to the southeast, they will encounter an environment
characterized by MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear over
50 knots, clearly supportive of organized convection.

Most CAM guidance suggests that one or two long-lived supercells
will evolve out of this activity and move south-southeast near the
Nebraska-Iowa border.  The primary severe weather threat from these
storms will likely be large hail, but as the storms become rooted in
the boundary layer over time, isolated damaging wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible.

..Jirak/Hart.. 06/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42269910 42749878 42899810 42869740 42819686 42469633
            41819593 41269582 40819580 40479618 40449715 40709814
            41229874 41869908 42269910




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