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000
FXUS65 KGGW 210903
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
303 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Strong winds and near critical fire weather concerns come in
on Monday.

2) Otherwise, a broad ridge pattern builds into the area this
week resulting in mostly dry and seasonable conditions.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A much warmer day is in store ahead of the next quick moving cold
front tonight and associated low pressure system. Winds will be
switching direction to the west tonight, with high (80 percent)
confidence that wind gusts will reach or exceed 40 mph on Monday.
Very little precipitation accumulation, if any, will be associated
with this disturbance. The combo of wind and lack of
precipitation suggest near critical fire weather conditions, so a
Fire Weather Watch remains in place for much of the day Monday.
See fire weather section below for more details. A quieter pattern
quickly resumes on Tuesday with broad upper level ridging and no
major disturbances hinted at amongst ensembles through the rest of
the week.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Confidence is high for temperatures, low precipitation amounts and
the general wind pattern through the extended period. With regard
to near critical fire weather conditions moving into red flag
criteria Monday, moderate confidence continues to exist. No
departures were made from the NBM at this time, but the focus will
be on the accuracy of wind and humidity forecast values through
Monday night.

-Zanker/Stoinskers

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2030Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: High pressure has moved in, resulting in quiet flying
conditions through tonight with mostly clear skies and light
winds.

WIND: Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable
after 00Z, becoming south at 5 to 10 knots after 09Z, increasing
to 10 to 20 knots after 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong cold front will move through the area tonight. The initial passage
as winds increase along with low humidity around 20% results in
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening,
briefly near critical. The latest forecast guidance suggests
wetting rain probabilities are low (under 20%) and mainly north
of the Missouri River. Wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph will be
widespread across the entire area Monday, along with gusts up to
50 mph. Over the past two weeks, Dawson, Prairie and Wibaux
counties have received around 25 percent of normal precipitation.
Based on this, there is high (70 percent) confidence locations
south of a line from the Little Rockies to Wibaux will have near
critical conditions for fire weather on Monday. This is in
response to forecast winds reaching and/or exceeding RH values
during Monday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect
for Zones 122, 135, 136, and 137 on Monday. By Tuesday, there will
be little change in RH, but winds back off considerably.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Southern
Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The
Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell
National Wildlife Refuge.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow