357
FXAK67 PAJK 140059
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
359 PM AKST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Multiple Winter Weather Advisories and Warnings are in effect
   for Sunday across the central Panhandle and the Icy Strait
   Corridor.

 - Cold temperatures continue, with very cold wind chills near
   White Pass.

 - Gusty outflow winds down Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, near
   Point Couverden, and Downtown Juneau continue tonight.

 - Snow will continue through tonight with decreasing snow rates
   ahead of the next round expected tomorrow. Numerous winter
   weather advisories and winter storm warnings in effect for
   Sunday.

 - Moderate to heavy snow rates expected for the central panhandle
   on Sunday, with precipitation continuing into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../through Saturday night/
Today has, more or less, been a day of seeing how the weather has
evolved to gain a better perspective on the possibilities for
tonight.

This first round of snow has moved northward a little quicker and
farther than expected and the warmer air behind the initial front
was able to erode the cold air in the far south quite nicely.

The snow is expected to last through tonight with overall
diminishing rates ahead of the next round. Snowfall totals for the
rest of this afternoon, through the evening and overnight, are
around 1 to 4 inches. Gustavus, areas around Baranof Island, to
northern Prince of Wales island will get snow amounts on the lower
end of that range. Farther inland, Juneau southward to
Petersburg/Wrangell/Kake area, will get the higher end of that
range. Isolated up to 5 inches aren`t out of the question for
those who get stuck under snow banding.

For the far southern panhandle, the cold rain will likely stick
around as southerly flow keeps the slightly warmer air in place.
For the far northern panhandle, the moisture looks to stay limited
so kept snow chances limited due to the dry and cold air moving
in.

As far as wind speeds go, overall expecting conditions to remain
steady with a slight diminishing trend. But that trend won`t last
long as the next low pushes northward. So winds will pick back up
late tonight.

.SHORT TERM.../Sunday and Sunday night/
After a brief lull with slightly lighter precipitation tonight,
the next round of heavier precipitation pushes into the panhandle
starting early Sunday morning. This system will bring moderate to
heavy precipitation across the area; rain across the far southern
panhandle, and snow across the central to northern panhandle.
Heavy precipitation will begin over the southern panhandle Sunday
morning. As the system moves north it combines with a reinforcing
shortwave bringing moderate to heavy precipitation to the central
panhandle Sunday afternoon into evening.

The initial system today has allowed for moisture across the
central panhandle to increase with increasing temperatures and dew
points. Because of this, the environment is less dry, allowing
for a more favorable snow environment with the system on Sunday.
With increased moisture in place, confidence has increased for
heavy snow and larger total snow accumulations around from
Petersburg north into the Icy Strait Corridor, including Juneau.
Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for Sunday with
accumulations around 8 to 15 inches of snow in 24 hours. Highest
snow amounts will be near eastern Baranof Island and southern
Admiralty Island, as that is where the heaviest precipitation band
is most likely to set up. There is still some uncertainty on snow
amounts over the Wrangell area. The main factor that will effect
snow amounts there is increasing temperatures. Current forecast
has the rain snow line is setting up right around/between
Petersburg and Wrangell. Even if Wrangell sees temperatures rise
more quickly, snow melt cooling could occur creating a slightly
cooler environment that would be favorable for more snow fall,
overall a very challenging forecast.

The far northern panhandle will also see some snow Sunday
evening, but snow amounts remain very low due to continued
northerly flow and a dry environment.

Along with snow, strong winds across the area continue with
outflow. The strongest of these winds will continue to be across
the northern inner channels, specifically Lynn Canal and near
Point Couverden. Land winds will remain elevated, but one thing to
note is another mountain wave event is looking likely for
downtown Juneau. Easterly mountain wave winds will once again push
into downtown Juneau first Sunday morning, then after a brief
break, increase once again Sunday evening. With these mountain
wave winds, Downtown Juneau, Douglas, and Thane could once again
see frequent wind gusts to 60 mph. Main concerns with the
increased winds and incoming snow will be potential for brief
windows of blizzard conditions if visibilities stay reduced for a
prolonged period.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/...

The active weather pattern continues in full force, with changes
to the forecast significantly increasing chances of additional
accumulating snowfall for the central panhandle and Icy Strait
Corridor through Tuesday, before the primary band of precipitation
moves further and southward through the remainder of the week and
departs the area entirely on Friday.

The big change to the forecast has been the track of a strong low
in the gulf Monday/Tuesday. This low was previously forecast to
remain largely offshore and out over the central gulf, which would
have encouraged weaker WAA across the southern panhandle
alongside the better chances of PoPs in the same area. That
situation has changed. Operational guidance, led by the
Euro/Canadian models, have started falling in line behind a
solution which would see this low moving NE, up into the panhandle
directly on Tuesday. Ensembles have also begun to favor this
scenario more heavily. This result would bring significantly more
precipitation into the central panhandle Monday through Tuesday,
with the greatest amounts between the Icy Strait Corridor and
Petersburg/Wrangell. While confidence is growing in the potential
for additional significant snowfall amounts across the Icy Strait
Corridor through much of Tuesday as a result, the precipitation
type from Kake southward is very much in flux. The low`s much
closer positioning to the panhandle means that WAA will be
stronger than previously anticipated and could result in rain
mixing in or even supplanting the snow entirely for these areas
through parts of Monday and lasting through Tuesday. The final
precipitation type for these areas will be dependent on the final
trajectory of the low, with a track that takes it into the more
northern section of the panhandle pushing the rain/snow line
further north, while a track which would take it into the southern
panhandle (as some ensemble runs are suggesting) would see the
rain/snow line remain further to the south. The southern
trajectory would increase chances of continued snow accumulations
in places like Kake and Petersburg. Ketchikan, Annette Island,
and southern PoW Island at least look set to largely remain rain
during this time frame.

By Wednesday, precipitation will have largely ended across the
Icy Strait Corridor, as the upper level trough over the Gulf
shifts eastward, and northerly flow begins to win out and shift
further southward. Chances of precipitation will continue in the
southern half of the panhandle as the advance of the northerly
outflow will finds itself eventually stalling as a low approaching
the Dixon Entrance keeps chances of PoPs in the forecast through
Thursday. Chances of PoPs finally depart through early Friday, as
drier weather and northerly outflow prevail across the entire
area, and we find ourselves on the W flank of the upper level
trough through early next week.

Winds will remain elevated as well, with strong land-based winds
especially prevalent across the northern panhandle as the strong
northerly gradient accelerates cross barrier flow, and keeps the
potential for elevated winds in Skagway and Haines, alongside the
possibility for a mountain wave (Taku) wind event for Downtown
Juneau, Douglas, and Thane. Temperatures begin falling from North
to South once more through the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Sunday afternoon/
Panhandle still split into 2 regimes as a system pushes into the
southern panhandle. Starting for the north, from Yakutat eastward
over to Skagway and Haines, VFR flight conditions continue with
broken or overcast CIGS AoA 5000ft. From Glacier Bay and Icy
Strait southward, deteriorating conditions as a front pushes
northward with IFR to MVFR conditions with intermittent LIFR
visbys due to heavier snow. Through the rest of the afternoon,
aforementioned front and snow showers will continue to push north
and weaken before stalling along the central panhandle, with
precipitation already changing over to predominately rain for
Ketchikan and Klawock by Saturday afternoon. A short duration of
freezing rain has been observed and remains possible along the S
panhandle as surface winds turn S-ly and temperatures begins to
climb. Flight conditions by Saturday evening will be predominate
MVFR or worse across the panhandle as the system weakens and
stalls. A reinforcing secondary surge of moisture will push
through the panhandle by Sunday morning with another round of
heavy snowfall expected for the central and northern TAF sites
along the Icy Strait Corridor, including Sitka, Petersburg,
Wrangell, Juneau, Gustavus.

Strong winds for Skagway continue throughout the TAF period, with
NE wind speeds between 25 and 35 kt expected with gusts up to 55
kt. The strongest winds expected as the front approaches and the
gradient tightens into Saturday evening. The rest of the panhandle
will see increased winds between 10 and 20 kt as the front moves
through, along with gusts to 20 to 30 kts. With another front
approaching into tomorrow, the southern panhandle will see another
increase in winds at the end of the TAF period. LLWS remains a
concern across the southern and central panhandle with southerly
30 to 40 kt winds at 1500 to 2000 ft expected today and remaining
over the southern panhandle through the TAF period. The northern
panhandle around Icy Strait Corridor including Juneau and
Gustavus, as well as up along the NE Gulf coast near Yakutat, will
see some wind shear with northeasterly winds of 30 to 40 kts at
2000 ft lasting through the TAF period, even as surface winds turn
SE for Juneau and as surface winds remain relatively light for
Gustavus and Yakutat.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Northeasterly outflow gap wind speeds remain
elevated tonight. No real big changes as one low exits and the
next one moves in. Some freezing spray remains possible for the
northeastern gulf.

Inside: The outflow pattern continues into tonight across the
northern panhandle, with continued wind speeds up to 25 to 40 kts.
Wind speeds and gusts up to 50 to 55 kt continue for Lynn Canal.
Wind directions will, more-or-less, remain unchanged through the
short term across the northern panhandle. Freezing spray
possibilities remain for Stephens Passage, Northern Chatham, Icy
Strait Corridor, and Lynn Canal through, progressively getting
heavier as we go into next week.

The biggest exception is the far southern panhandle, where south
winds will be around 10 to 20 kts tonight wind higher south winds
likely for Sunday.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318-325.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night
     for AKZ320>327-329.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ326-
     327-329.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ328-330-332.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011-012-053.
     Storm Warning for PKZ651.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-022-031-036-053-641-643-644-661>664-
     671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032-034-035-642-652.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GJS
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...STJ/NM
MARINE...GJS

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