461
FXUS63 KDVN 132347
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
547 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will continue through the remainder of the
  afternoon, decreasing in coverage quickly by evening. Dry
  conditions will remain through the remainder of the weekend.

- Bitterly cold air remains in place, with clear skies and a
  fresh snowpack allowing for very cold temperatures tonight.
  Cold Weather Advisory remains area-wide for wind chills
  between -20 and -30.

- Gradual warm-up will be seen through the upcoming work week,
  with largely dry conditions until mid-late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Clipper continues to push out of the area, with snow decreasing in
coverage from northwest to southeast. This is expected to clear much
of the area within the next few hours, with some flurries or light
snow lingering in our southeast. Any further accumulations prior to
sunset should be <1". Winter Weather Advisories will remain in
effect for our western counties until 3PM and for counties along
and east of the Mississippi River until 6PM. Sunset and beyond,
we will see the clouds clear out quickly behind the system.
Clear skies will work with the fresh snowpack, resulting in
plummeting temperatures after dark. We will see temperatures
drop into the negative single digits to teens. A northwesterly
breeze will remain, which will lead to bitterly cold wind
chills. We will see widespread wind chills as cold as 20-30
below zero throughout the area, with some areas in our northwest
possibly seeing colder readings. Confidence in those colder
temperatures is low at this time. Thus, will continue to hold
onto the Cold Weather Advisory. Will continue to monitor
observational trends through the afternoon and evening for any
potential headline upgrades in our northwest.

Sunday will be another bitterly cold day, with high temperatures
remaining in the single digits throughout. The sun will be out,
which will make it look quite deceiving out there. Thus, another day
where it is advised to stay inside if you can, wearing multiple
layers if having to go out. Winds will remain lighter through the
day though, which will limit the wind chill from dropping too low.
Although, we are still looking at wind chills between 0 to -10
through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Sunday night temperatures look to tank after sunset with the arctic
high overhead and the snowpack supporting strong radiational
cooling. Temperatures should plunge quickly below zero and could
bottom out in the teens below zero in some locations. Fortunately
winds will be very light, but any little puff will foster wind
chills near -20 in a few locations with mainly teens below zero
elsewhere. After midnight Sunday night the arctic high will shift
east as a surface trough propagates from the Northern Rockies into
the Northern Plains. This will provide just enough pressure gradient
increase and from a southerly direction to promote rising
temperatures in the single digits and teens above zero by daybreak
Monday. Early week then will feature a continued warming trend and
some snowmelt by Tuesday and Wednesday as highs climb into the 30s
and even 40s in some areas.

Beyond, the next chance of precipitation looks to be late Wednesday
through Thursday with a potentially rather vigorous shortwave
trough. Still plenty of uncertainty on track/strength, but in
general a preponderance of the deterministic and ensemble guidance
favors a northerly track, which would support mainly rain for the
area being well entrenched within the warm sector. Colder air would
wrap in as the system passes, but it would appear that any
accumulating snow potential would focus further north across parts
of MN/WI within the deformation. Still being several days away the
potential exists for changes, so stay tuned. Any cold should be
short-lived as the pattern aloft is set to remain semi-zonal or a
fast west to east flow favorable for bouts of MP airmass, which will
threaten the snow cover and potential for a white Christmas. This
flow pattern will also keep it active/unsettled.

McClure

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Incoming arctic high is scouring out the clouds and snow,
making for a VFR TAF cycle into Sunday evening. Persistent
northwesterly sfc winds of 10-15 KTs overnight, may back to the
west southwest and diminish some by late Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ065-
     067-068-078-089.
IL...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ILZ001-002-007-
     009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     ILZ015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...12