Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
643 FXUS64 KEPZ 132342 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 442 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 442 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Cold front arriving from the east Sunday morning, dropping temperatures about 8 to 15 degrees Sunday and Monday. Gusty east winds up to 35 mph along mountain west slopes Sunday morning. - Dry conditions and near record highs again through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 AM MST Sat Dec 13 2025 No changes in the forecast, the most impactful weather will be tonight into Sunday with a back door cold front moving through. Typical back door with east to northeast winds picking up behind it with west slopes and areas out on the Lordsburg Playa getting winds of 15-25G35mph. These winds for most of the area will die off by early afternoon but keep going on the playa through much of the day. After some record high days, temperatures will drop about 5 degrees out west to 15 degrees in the east. Easterly low level winds continue into Monday with an approaching upper trough. Looks like some decent mid/high cloud coverage and this may end up being the coolest day of the forecast period. NBM temps did seem a little high and tapered down a couple degrees but may need more if it looks like the cloud cover lingers through the day. The upper trough will push southeast of the area Tuesday and winds will start to shift back around to the west. This will start another warmup going towards more record highs by late in the week. Warmest days will see highs over most of the lowlands into the 70s. Record at KELP on Wed is 73, 79 on Thu and 74 on Fri. Don`t see Thu being in jeopardy, but Wed and Fri are possible. NBM has been running a little cool with these unusually warm Dec temps and did raise up a couple degrees with near record highs expected. Dry air will also accompany this warmup as we have seen recently, so overnight lows will fall off nicely into the 30s for most areas, a couple nights will see enough wind that lower to mid 40s are possible in places like El Paso. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 442 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025 Generally VFR through the period with SCT180 SCT-BKN250. Developing along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mtns aft 06Z...SCT-BKN030 PATCHY 3SM BR. These clouds mostly dissipating after 18Z. Surface winds increasing to east/northeast 10-15 knots after 08Z. Areas along west slopes of terrain could gust to 30 kts. Patchy BLDU possible west of Lordsburg during this period. Winds diminishing to east/southeast 8-12 knots after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1005 AM MST Sat Dec 13 2025 Today will be the last real warm day until the middle of next week as a fairly strong back door cold front moves in tonight. Expect temperatures for Sun/Mon to be about 5-15 degrees cooler than recent days with east winds of 10-20 mph. RH`s will also be higher in the 25-50% range through Monday. Temperatures will start to warm back up towards record highs by the middle of next week with RH`s returning to the teens and 20s. Poor to low end fair vent rates continue into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 40 62 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 34 52 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 36 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 32 59 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 26 48 29 48 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 35 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 37 60 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 34 62 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 37 64 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 41 62 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 31 52 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 35 61 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 34 53 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 36 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 39 60 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 40 60 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 27 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 31 63 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 37 63 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 29 59 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 24 50 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 26 55 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 25 53 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 27 57 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 35 60 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 29 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 24 63 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 33 58 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 27 65 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 24 62 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 37 57 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 36 63 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 33 63 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 34 62 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 41 60 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner