213
FXUS62 KGSP 132351
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic cold front will cross the region early Sunday, ushering
in bitterly cold temperatures to start the week. The arctic
high pressure system will quickly shift to the east and allow
temperatures to quickly rebound by midweek. Another cold front
may bring a return of rain chances late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Saturday: Stratocu beginning to move into the
southwestern portions of the CWFA and will become more widespread
throughout the evening, ahead of the arctic front. The front is
currently draped from the Lower Great Lakes, into the OH Valley, and
into the mid-MS Valley. The forecast is still on track with only
minor tweaks made based on current observations and latest model
trends.

Otherwise, a broad long wave trough over the region will sharpen
tonight into Sunday, as a strong speed max digs from the northern
Great Plains this afternoon to the southern and central Appalachians
by late Sunday morning. Associated arctic cold front will sweep
quickly across our forecast area from ~shortly after midnight
through around sunrise. The strongest and deepest forcing will pass
north of the CWA, but there may be enough weak moisture return ahead
of the front to squeeze out a shower or two...but precip chances
will be highest to our north (stronger forcing) and south (better
moisture return), with mainly token 20-30 PoPs across our area. In
the wake of the front, strong NW cold advection flow will become
established, with moist upslope flow supporting scattered/numerous
snow shower development in the vicinity of the TN/NC border from
around the pre-dawn hours through much of the morning. However,
thermodynamic ingredients supporting accumulating snow showers will
be in place only very briefly, with the potential for a couple of
inches being mainly confined to the high peaks along the state line.

Otherwise, temps will plummet behind the front, with Sunday`s high
temps likely occurring around midnight tonight. After the initial
surge of cold advection, temps are forecast to slowly fall across
the mountains, while remaining steady or slowly rising elsewhere
(due to the offsetting effects of warming downslope flow.) Winds
will be very gusty through the day, with gusts of 30-40 mph
expected across the high elevations and in the downslope zone
along the Blue Ridge escarpment. These very gusty winds will
persist through sunset, when temps are likely to begin falling
more sharply. As a result, wind chill values above 3500 feet or
so across the northern and central NC mountains are forecast to
meet or exceed Cold Wx Advisory criteria...and one will be issued
for these areas from 5 pm Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Saturday:

Key Message: Arctic front brings gusty winds with bitterly cold
temperatures Sunday night through Monday.

Strong 850 mb CAA and sfc pressure rises will keep gusty winds into
the evening Sunday, as temps continue to plummet behind the passage
of an arctic front. Winds will begin to weaken late in the evening
thru the overnight, and temps will fall well into the teens across
most of the Piedmont, and single digits in the mountains. These
temps combined with lingering winds will bring wind chills below
zero across most of the mountains, and single digits to lower
teens across the Piedmont. A Cold Weather Advisory will be issued
for the NC mountains above 3500 ft and all of Avery County. The
Piedmont criteria are more complicated, with the Foothills and NW
NC Piedmont needing 5 degrees or less, while the southern/lower
Piedmont only needs 10 degrees or less. Even bumping up winds with
the 75th percentile of the NBM, wind chills struggle to meet these
criteria, except for portions of the I-77 corridor. Given this is
still in the third period of the forecast, will hold off on issuing
any Cold Advisory outside the mountains with this forecast package.

Winds should become light and skies remain clear making it look
deceptively nice on Monday. But the arctic air mass will settle
right over the area and keep temps mainly in the 30s to lower
40s, which is 15-20 degrees below normal for mid-December. The
high will begin to slide east Monday night, allowing for decent
WAA aloft. Still should see good radiational cooling and bring
low temps into the 20s area-wide. With light winds, wind chills
shouldn`t be an issue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Saturday:

Key Message: Temperatures rebound and dry conditions settle in
before precip chances increase by the end of the week.

Arctic high pressure slides off the East Coast under quasi-zonal
flow aloft Tuesday, allowing for a nice rebound in temps and
continued dry weather. Highs return to lower to mid 50s (except
40s above 3500 ft) and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. There
may be periods of increased mid and high clouds streaming thru
westerly flow, but overall, mostly clear skies is expected. The
12z GFS tries to bring a few showers to the mountains from the
west Wednesday, but this seems overdone compared to the rest of
the models. Better rain chances may return late Thursday thru
early Friday, as models are coming into better agreement on a
cold front approaching from the west. Temps warm to slightly above
normal Wednesday thru Thursday, so precip should be largely just
rain. The air mass behind this front looks mild and only knocks
temps down to around normal Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected through most of the
period, but a small window of MVFR potential still exists roughly
between 06Z to 15Z as increasing cloud cover develops ahead of
a strong cold front. Low VFR and MVFR cigs are expected, with
restrictions possible at all terminals, but favoring KCLT/KAVL,
and the Upstate sites. A brief shower is also possible at KAND and
KCLT, but a slight shift to the north could bring a brief shower
across KGSP/KGMU as well. Light southwesterly winds through the
evening will shift to the northwest behind the front during the
06Z to 15Z time frame. Gusts will increase through the morning
hours with 30-35 kts at KAVL and around 25 kts elsewhere through
much of the daytime period Sunday before gradually subsiding after
sunset. Clouds will clear behind the front with SKC at all terminals
by Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: Gusty N/NW winds will diminish Sunday night into daybreak
Monday. Dry high pressure will keep VFR conditions in place through
mid-week. The next cold front will bring shower chances and possibly
restrictions by Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
     NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CAC/JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CAC