933
FXUS63 KICT 140021
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much colder through Sunday before temperatures quickly
  moderate.

- Above normal temperatures return for the upcoming week with the
  dry weather prevailing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Arctic air continues to settle southward over the area this
afternoon as low level winds slowly back with time. The shallow
nature of the cold air is creating some challenges in the short term
forecast and it still looks like this cold air will be relatively
short-lived beginning to mix out in western Kansas as we move
through the day on Sunday. As drier air continues to advect over the
area this evening and tonight, the probabilities for very light
fzdz/flurries are expected to remain very low although a few
flurries may linger into the late afternoon/early evening hours.
Low clouds have been stubborn and will likely linger through the
overnight hours and into the day on Saturday as high resolution
model data continues to be much to aggressive mixing these
clouds out over the past couple of days.

Temperatures were trended lower on Sunday to account for a slightly
slower departure of the shallow arctic airmass, especially over
southeast KS but confidence in how quickly this airmass mixes out
remains fairly low. Some areas in eastern Kansas may struggle to
climb into the mid 20s while those in central KS may approach
freezing by late afternoon.

As arctic high pressure is displaced southeastward away from the
area we expect temperatures to quickly moderate as we move into the
day on Monday. Above average temperatures are likely through the
middle of the week as the mid/upper ridge influences the weather
over the Central Plains. A shortwave trough racing eastward across
the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains will drive a cold front
south over the area on Thursday but temperatures in the wake of the
front are still expected to remain above average for late December.
Dry weather conditions are expected to prevail through the
upcoming week and into the upcoming weekend with highs in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

As drier air advects in from the north-northeast, IFR and MVFR
ceilings should gradually improve as the evening progresses
across central and eastern Kansas, probably in the 02-04z
timeframe. Otherwise, gusty northeast winds will gradually
subside this evening as well, turning southerly on Sunday, gusty
for RSL and GBD TAF sites.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...ADK