763
FXUS61 KILN 132244
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
544 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system moving across the region will quickly move off to the east
tonight. Arctic air will settle into the region behind the snow,
bringing bitterly cold temperatures into Monday. This will be
followed by a substantial warm up through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Update...

Two bands of enhanced snow have set up across our area late this
afternoon. The first one is along and just north of the I-70
corridor and the second one is just along and north of the Ohio
River. Colder air is moving in from the north and this will continue
to increase SLRs through early evening from north to south. The last
few runs of the HRRR have picked up on these two bands and our
indicating that the highest snow amounts will likely end up being
with the second/southern band. Have therefore nudged up totals across
parts of our southern areas where 5 to 7 inches storm total snow
amounts seem possible from Hamilton/Butler Counties eastward through
through Highland, Ross and Pike Counties (also including northern
portions of Clermont, Brown, Adams and Scioto Counties). There is a
back edge of the heavier pcpn moving east across southern Indiana
attm so would expect the heavier snow to taper off fairly quickly
from west to east later this evening.

Previous discussion...

Initial area of mid level frontogenesis has caused snow to quickly
spread across the area. This initial burst will move off this
afternoon but be rapidly followed by another enhancement of snowfall
rates late this afternoon into this evening as another concentrated
area of frontogenesis moves through ahead of the mid level short
wave. The early activity will continue to be aligned more west to
east while the latter will pivot to more of a southwest to northeast
orientation. The entire system will be quick to depart through the
evening with precipitation ending in far southeast counties by 06Z.

Despite being a quick hitter, substantial snowfall will occur. Snow
to liquid ratios become greater with time as cold air start to spill
into the region in the wake of a front crossing the area this
afternoon. SLRs during the time of heaviest precipitation will
generally range from 15:1 to 20:1. Trends in high resolution guidance
have led to a tighter gradient in precipitation on the southern edge
of this system which will limit snowfall amounts across much of
northern Kentucky. However, north of there, QPF has gotten slightly
higher. The corresponding increase in snowfall from higher forecast
precipitation has led to expansion of the winter storm warning into
the I-70 corridor. With banding, there may be localized amounts of 8
inches or more, especially wherever that pivot point ends up being.

Arctic air will continue to spill into the region through the
overnight hours. Winds are forecast to stay around 10 to 15 mph. The
combination results in bitter wind chill. Cold advisory has these
conditions covered well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Arctic high will build southeast with the center of the high moving
into central Kentucky by late Sunday night. This will result in winds
decreasing but perhaps not completely decoupling Sunday night. Record
cold highs will be in jeopardy on Sunday, although highs for the day
may end up being at midnight. After initially decreasing late
tonight into Sunday morning, clouds are expected to have some
diurnally driven increase which should then diminish Sunday night.

Record cold maxima for December 14:
CVG 15 in 1917
CMH 16 in 1917
DAY 16 in 1917

Apparent temperatures will rise above the cold weather advisory
criteria Sunday afternoon. They will fall again Sunday night even
with lighter winds because of colder air temperatures. It may be
marginal whether some of the area reaches the criteria, but no
changes were made to the timing of the advisory at this stage.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid level flow will become zonal early in the period with broad
consensus in bringing a short wave across the region Thursday into
Thursday night. Within this consensus there is still a decent amount
of spread, primarily in amplitude and lesser so in the timing.
Looking at the cluster analysis, these differences are not making a
substantial difference in sensible weather, at least for that far
out in time when we are not too concerned with details. This short
wave will bring a cold front across the region Thursday afternoon
and evening with showers ahead of it. The strength of the system
will largely influence the QPF as well as how strong the wind fields
are both pre and post frontal. That will be resolved as this gets
closer in time, but for now a broad brush suffices.

Other than this system, the main feature of this period will be the
big warmup that will take place after the brief Arctic intrusion.
Temperatures are still going to be around 20 degrees below normal on
Monday, but then readings will be jumping 7 to 10 degrees each
following day into Thursday. It will take until Wednesday to even
approach normal with ensemble probabilities still rather low to
reach this threshold (20 to 30 percent). Thursday will definitely
rise above normal, although to what degree is not entirely clear.
Probability of reaching at least 50 range from 80 percent across
northern Kentucky to near 30 percent north of I-70.

In the immediate wake of the front, temperatures will fall back
below normal on Friday but with dry conditions as high pressure
moves through. This cool down will be brief with temperatures
pushing 50 again by Saturday (probability 30 to 70 percent). The
warmth will come with a chance of rain, although there is quite a
bit of spread on that potential. GFS ensemble is the most robust
with precipitation chances with almost all of its members generating
precipitation. About half of the Canadian ensemble members follow
suit. But the other half of the Canadian along with most of the
ECMWF members are more scant.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread moderate to locally heavy snow and IFR conditions will
continue for the first couple of hours of the TAF period. The snow
will begin to taper off from the west through late evening. MVFR
clouds will then linger into the early morning hours before
beginning to scatter out late tonight. MVFR stratocu will redevelop
through late morning and continue through the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for OHZ053>056-060>065-
     070>074-077>082-088.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051-052.
KY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for KYZ091>093.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for KYZ089>100.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for INZ080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL