065
FXUS64 KJAN 140057 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
657 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Gusty northerly winds and much colder conditions will follow
    an arctic cold front passage tonight.

  - Dangerously cold temperatures are expected Sunday night into
    early Monday morning with widespread wind chills into the 10
    to 20 degree range and lows in the teens to lower 20s.

 &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 642 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

By far, the most impactful weather in the forecast concerns the
arctic air intruding upon the forecast area as we finish up the
weekend and move into early next week. Overall messaging for this
has not changed significantly since this morning, but with
increased confidence and following coordination with neighbors, we
have issued a cold weather advisory for Sunday night into early
Monday.

For this evening: Scattered warm advection shower activity ahead
of the arctic frontal boundary will consolidate and bring light
moderate rainfall amounts over mainly the southern half of the
forecast area. A few areas of fog may form again early tonight
across southern portions of the area, but with the cold front
moving in quickly, would expected this to be a shorter term event
and not as impactful as what was experienced this morning.

For the overnight through Monday night: Arctic high pressure will
build quickly southward over the area behind the cold front
passage. A strong pressure gradient will lend to gusty north wind,
and ultimately lead to wind chill readings approaching 10.
Temperatures will begin falling significantly tonight to below
freezing north of the I-20 corridor, and some readings will not
climb much if any above freezing Sunday along/north of the Highway
82 corridor.

The surface anticyclone responsible for the cold is not the most
intense we`ve ever seen, but it is making a fast track from the
Arctic and not modifying much as it crosses extensive snowpack.
Moreover, the trajectory of the highest pressures through the
lower MS Valley is most ideal for cold advection. The bottom line
here is that we`ll "get our money`s worth" from whatever this cold
air mass can bring. Temperatures should bottom out around
daybreak Monday in the teens to around 20, then begin a slow but
steady climb Monday as the air modifies and cold advection shuts
down. With the surface high sitting overhead Monday night, any
warmth that accrues Monday should have no problem departing under
clear skies and light wind, so look for lows to drop back well
below freezing then.

Tuesday through Friday: A moderating trend in temperatures is
expected with readings getting above normal later in the week.
Rain chances will be on the increase with the developing warm
advection pattern ahead of an approach cold front. Weather impacts
overall do not look significant at this point, but may need to
monitor for some thunderstorm potential ahead of the late week
front. /EC/

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

No significant changes needed to the short-term forecast needed,
but weather elements were updated through tomorrow afternoon with
the latest guidance. Fog and occasional showers tonight will yield
to strong north winds and colder weather by tomorrow. A few
locations in the Delta may struggle to warm above freezing during
the day. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

By far, the most impactful weather in the forecast concerns the
arctic air intruding upon the forecast area as we finish up the
weekend and move into early next week. Overall messaging for this
has not changed significantly since this morning, but with
increased confidence and following coordination with neighbors, we
have issued a cold weather advisory for Sunday night into early
Monday.

For this evening: Scattered warm advection shower activity ahead
of the arctic frontal boundary will consolidate and bring light
moderate rainfall amounts over mainly the southern half of the
forecast area. A few areas of fog may form again early tonight
across southern portions of the area, but with the cold front
moving in quickly, would expected this to be a shorter term event
and not as impactful as what was experienced this morning.

For the overnight through Monday night: Arctic high pressure will
build quickly southward over the area behind the cold front
passage. A strong pressure gradient will lend to gusty north wind,
and ultimately lead to wind chill readings approaching 10.
Temperatures will begin falling significantly tonight to below
freezing north of the I-20 corridor, and some readings will not
climb much if any above freezing Sunday along/north of the Highway
82 corridor.

The surface anticyclone responsible for the cold is not the most
intense we`ve ever seen, but it is making a fast track from the
Arctic and not modifying much as it crosses extensive snowpack.
Moreover, the trajectory of the highest pressures through the
lower MS Valley is most ideal for cold advection. The bottom line
here is that we`ll "get our money`s worth" from whatever this cold
air mass can bring. Temperatures should bottom out around
daybreak Monday in the teens to around 20, then begin a slow but
steady climb Monday as the air modifies and cold advection shuts
down. With the surface high sitting overhead Monday night, any
warmth that accrues Monday should have no problem departing under
clear skies and light wind, so look for lows to drop back well
below freezing then.

Tuesday through Friday: A moderating trend in temperatures is
expected with readings getting above normal later in the week.
Rain chances will be on the increase with the developing warm
advection pattern ahead of an approach cold front. Weather impacts
overall do not look significant at this point, but may need to
monitor for some thunderstorm potential ahead of the late week
front. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A mix of VFR to IFR conditions to start the period with low
stratus and FG. North winds will clear any FG, and low stratus
will clear from north to south between 12Z-18Z /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       36  43  21  46 /  70   0   0   0
Meridian      34  43  19  46 /  80   0   0   0
Vicksburg     32  39  21  44 /  60   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   44  54  22  49 /  80  20   0   0
Natchez       36  44  22  48 /  80   0   0   0
Greenville    26  33  19  39 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     27  36  18  43 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

NF/EC