Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
981 FXUS65 KLKN 131937 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1137 AM PST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1058 AM PST Sat Dec 13 2025 * Unseasonably warm temperatures continue to threaten records across the area * Fair weather and light winds are forecast through Monday * Strong gusty winds expected around mid week and lasting into the weekend * Next chance for precipitation centered around mid week next week with increasing chance for more precipitation by late week into next weekend && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Persistent upper ridge over the southwestern U.S. continues to keep dry and unseasonably warm temperatures over central and northern Nevada. Warm temperatures through the rest of weekend and into early week could reach or break temperature records. Light and variable winds across the Silver State. Upper ridge expected to flatten out as a more zonal flow pattern moves over the western U.S. with gradients tightening more directly over the Great Basin area. The zonal flow pattern will bring the Jet Stream overhead, giving stronger winds mainly across northern Nevada beginning Tuesday evening into Wednesday and lasting until the weekend. Winds from the southern jet exit will give a more northwesterly flow into Nevada which will bring cooler temperatures and increasing moisture levels. However, moisture is not expected to infiltrate beyond I-80, staying to the north. This pattern will keep unseasonably potentially record breaking warm temperatures across central Nevada despite winds reaching as far as the US-50 corridor. Chance of precipitation increases with the northwesterly flow from the jet exit, however, confidence on wetting rains for northern Nevada in the mid-week are low, as there is not a lot of moisture pushing south with little to no lifting mechanism. By late week and into the weekend, cluster analysis and models are showing greater agreement that the zonal flow will shift with increasing chance of greater precipitation chances moving into northern Nevada. Central Nevada however is expected to stay dry as the moisture stays north of US-50. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of unseasonably warm temperatures to continue. High confidence of stronger winds moving into Nevada by mid-week. Low confidence of precipitation chances mid-week. High confidence of a stronger weather impact late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hour period as the persistent high pressure remains over the region. No weather impacts expected at this time with light and variable winds this afternoon. By the evening, southerly winds increase up to 10 kts at KTPH and KELY. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97