101
FXUS66 KLOX 132354
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
354 PM PST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...13/214 PM.

Dense fog to return this evening along the coasts and some
valleys lasting through Sunday morning. Temperatures will trend
warmer Sunday through Tuesday, then will cool each day thereafter.
Low chance for light rain across northern areas next weekend.
Followed by a chance for widespread rain during Christmas week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...13/216 PM.

Satellite imagery shows low clouds situated along virtually the
entire coastline early this afternoon. Fog (patchy dense) is
expected to move inland by this evening. It is expected to return
to the same areas as this morning, maybe slightly less inland.
Therefore Dense Fog advisories will likely be issued for similar
areas lasting thru Sunday morning. Mist & drizzle may accumulate
a few hundredths of an inch where fog occurs.

An east-based Aleutian low will amplify with several vorticity
maximums rounding the base. Downstream implications such as PVA
and WAA will result in the re- amplification of the ridge over our
area on Monday and Tuesday.

Max Temperatures are expected to warm 3 to 6 degrees for coasts
and valleys south of Point conception and 4 to 8 degrees along the
Central coast on Monday. Interior areas should remain similar to
Sunday. Tuesday`s Maximum Ts should be similar to Monday, except
across Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills (2 to 4 degrees
warmer).

During this period, coasts will average 5 to 10 degrees above
normal and inland areas 10-20 degrees above normal. Our current
forecast numbers show that Woodlands Hills may near 90 degrees on
Monday which would certainly break the daily record set not too
long ago (2017). Even on Sunday there is a chance we break the old
record of 83 set back in 2004. A handful of sites look to flirt
with daily records as well.

Offshore flow looks weaker than this past week, and with a lack
of sufficient mid-upper level support, wind advisories appear to
be unlikely at this time. At the very least, overnight lows will
remain warmer as offshore flow from the north and east continues.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...13/216 PM.

Offshore flow is generally expected through Thursday. LAX-DAG
gradient may approach neutral Wednesday morning indicated by ECWMF
guidance. By Friday, GEFS/EC are in agreement with onshore trends.
However, there is a handful of ensemble members that remain
neutral or even slightly negative.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
week despite slight cooling each day through Saturday. Exception
will be only the coast where Max Ts may cool to near normal Friday
or Saturday depending on how quickly gradients trend onshore.
Dense Fog will return whenever this occurs. Max Ts will be in the
60s to low 70s by Saturday.

The latest CPC 8-14 day precipitation outlook is showing likely
above normal precipitation across the region. There is a small
indication that there may be an "appetizer" for northern areas
over the weekend, but solutions remain light. The biggest story is
Christmas week where Santa may bring presents in the liquid form.
The ensemble suites of GFS, EC, and EC-AI are pretty adamant for
widespread rain with a "sweet spot": 23rd through the 26th with
lingering chances into the following weekend. High uncertainty in
timing and amounts at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...13/2353Z.

At 2345Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperatures of 21 degrees
Celsius.

For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in valley and desert TAFs.
Low to moderate confidence for coastal sites due to uncertainties
in timing of flight category changes which could be +/- 3 hours of
current forecasts. IFR to LIFR cigs/vsbys will be common across
coastal TAFs tonight into Sunday morning. VLIFR conditions with
VSBYS 1/4 to 1/2 mile likely (70%) tonight for KSMX and KSBP, with
varying chances for remaining coastal TAFS (KSBA/KLGB 50%,
KOXR/KCMA/KSMO/KLAX 20-30%).

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight
category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. IFR
to LIFR cigs/vsbys will be common tonight into Sunday morning.
There will be a 30% chance of VLIFR conditions with VSBYS
1/4 to 1/2 mile later tonight. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF, with MVFR vsbys due to haze
likely at times tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...13/959 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday
through Wednesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds,
especially from Point Conception southward.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On
Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds
across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.

Areas of dense fog with very low visibility will affect much of
the coastal waters today through Sunday. The best chances for
dense fog will be from the overnight through morning hours with
scattered pockets likely through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...MW/RAT
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox