452
FXUS63 KMKX 132057
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
257 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of southern
  Wisconsin tonight through 10 AM CST Sunday. Expect wind chill
  values in the negative 25 to locally negative 30 degree range.

- Wind chills will fall into the negative teens Sunday night
  into Monday, with local areas seeing wind chills as low as
  negative 20 degrees.

- Above average temperatures develop Tuesday afternoon through
  Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.

- The next chances for precipitation (40 to 60 percent) develop
  Wednesday night into Thursday. With temperatures near to above
  freezing, much of this precipitation is expected to be rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 258 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Tonight through Sunday night:

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue throughout tonight as
Arctic high pressure builds southward. Temperatures will rapidly
fall into the single digits below zero after sunset as skies
clear, with areas in central Wisconsin and the Wisconsin River
Valley falling into the negative 10 to negative 15 degree range.
With winds remaining elevated throughout the overnight hours,
expect wind chill values in the negative 20s to locally negative
30 degrees. Negative 30 degrees and below would reach the
criteria for Extreme Cold, but currently not enough confidence
in winds remaining gusty enough to produce criteria wind chills
for long enough to warrant the upgrade. Regardless of exact
values, frostbite on exposed skin is possible in as little as 30
minutes overnight tonight. Wear appropriate clothing and check
on susceptible people and pets.

As the Arctic high builds into the area fully on Sunday, expecting
winds to diminish to light and variable, allowing for wind
chills to more closely match the air temperatures. Although air
temperatures will remain frigid (slowly warming into the single
digits above zero degrees), wind chill values will improve
drastically mid-morning as winds diminish. The Cold Weather
Advisory is currently in effect through 10 AM CST Sunday. Clear
skies are then expected throughout Sunday afternoon with highs
in the single digits above zero.

Sunday night, high clouds begin to stream in from the north as
high pressure exits to the southeast, allowing for increasing
southwesterly winds throughout the overnight hours. Expecting
lows around zero degrees, but increasing temperatures during the
later overnight hours into the single digits above zero as
warmer air pushes northeastward again. The combination of still-
quite-cold temperatures and gusty winds will lead to wind chills
in the negative teens and a few areas down to negative 20
degrees. Currently localized enough that a Cold Weather Advisory
would not be needed for the overnight hours, but will reassess
if trends move toward colder temperatures during the period of
higher winds.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 258 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Monday through Saturday:

Another cold and breezy day is expected on Monday, as southerly
winds increase behind departing high pressure. Highs will be in
the low to mid 20s, with wind chills in the single digits above
and below zero.

Steady warm advection will bring warmer temperatures into the
region for mid week, with highs Tuesday-Thursday expected to be in
the mid to upper 30s. Not much in the way of precipitation is
expected until Thursday, when a robust storm system will move
through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Ensembles are in good
agreement in keeping the surface low north of the area (likely
tracking across northern Wisconsin and/or Lake Superior). This
scenario has southern Wisconsin solidly on the warm side of this
system, with rain favored Wednesday night and Thursday, before a
cold front sweeps across the region later Thursday.

That front looks to usher in a return to much colder temperatures
to end the workweek, though some moderation appears possible
heading into the following week.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 258 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

High clouds between 10,000 and 25,000 ft will slowly exit to
the southwest this evening and tonight, with clear skies
expected thereafter. Northwesterly winds will gust around 20 kt
throughout the overnight hours as well. Winds will diminish
slowly through the morning hours Sunday, becoming light and
variable during the afternoon hours. High level clouds move
back in Sunday afternoon as well. Winds then shift to become
southwesterly Sunday night, with gusts up to 25 kt by Monday
morning. Overcast skies are expected by Monday morning as well,
although VFR ceilings are expected.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 258 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Brisk northwest winds and heavy freezing spray will continue
across all open waters through Sunday morning as Arctic high
pressure slowly builds down through the northern Plains into
Iowa and weak low pressure exits through Quebec. In nearshore
waters, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday
morning, and some heavy freezing spray is possible.

Winds will gradually ease Sunday afternoon and evening as high
pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Low pressure then enters the
Hudson Bay as high pressure exits, bringing brisk southwest winds
late Sunday night into Monday. A Gale Watch is in effect for this
time frame, and Small Craft Advisories will also be needed. A
brief period of lighter winds develop Monday night, but low
pressure develops and progresses eastward across southern
Canada into Tuesday, bringing an additional round of brisk
southwest winds and gale potential, especially across the
northern half. Winds diminish into Wednesday as low pressure
exits, but become gusty and southwesterly again Thursday as an
additional low pressure system progresses across the northern
Plains.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
     WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066
     until 10 AM Sunday.

     Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ062-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-
     WIZ071-WIZ072...6 PM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday.

LM...Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM Monday to noon
     Monday.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
     until 9 AM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until noon
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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