160
FXUS64 KMOB 140006
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
606 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 555 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

  - Patchy to areas of fog may develop tonight across the local
    area. Fog could be dense in spots.

  - A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on
    Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are
    expected for Sunday night. Wind chills could drop to near 10
    degrees.

  - Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through
    Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Frequent gusts to
    gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Our last warm day until next week is upon us as two upper
troughs, the first over Canada dropping into the Great Lakes and a
very weak southern stream trough over the northern Gulf, will
move through the broader longwave pattern tonight into Sunday. To
start, very subtle moisture advection continues as winds have
become more southerly in advance of the first southern impulse.
This has led to a gradual rise in temperatures and dewpoints now
sneaking into the 60s along the coast. As this system approaches,
dewpoints will likely top out later this afternoon mainly south
of highway 84. Fog development has been iffy along the bay but as
advection increases and dewpoints reach their peak this evening we
will need to watch Mobile Bay and surrounding land areas for the
development of sea fog. Current HREF and NBM probabilities hint at
this possibly starting around 4 to 5 pm as temperatures cool but
dewpoints increase. Confidence in how dense and if fog will be
able to settle with slightly elevated near surface winds around 15
knots and cloud cover is currently keeping us from issuing any
fog products. Radar this afternoon has shown some weak isentropic
showers mainly north of highway 84. These will likely continue
through the afternoon before increasing in coverage tonight as the
upper troughs move in and ascent increases.

By tonight into Sunday, both upper troughs will begin to move
into the area which will lead to a rather drastic change as cold
arctic air plunges into the deep south Sunday into Sunday night.
Some scattered showers will be possible along the approaching cold
front late tonight into early Sunday morning before the gates of
the arctic open. Looking at NBM probabilities and we continue to
support temperatures being the coldest of the year. Probabilities
of air temperatures less than 20 degrees are floating around 50-70
percent mainly north of highway 84 and probabilities of less than
25 degrees above 80% almost to the immediate coastline. Given the
current trends getting colder and colder with each run and the
fact that guidance tends to struggle with these shallow arctic
airmasses, we have went ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory
for the entirety of the area. On top of the cold temperatures we
will likely see gusty winds behind the front leading to wind
chills in the teens all the way to the coast.With wind chills
dropping to near 10 degrees inland and 12 to 15 degrees along the
coast, we will have to closely monitor the potential for some
extreme cold products. The criteria is for wind chills less than
15 along the coastal counties and wind chills less than 10 inland.
Given the current forecast, extreme cold products would be most
likely across the coastal areas where winds may stay elevated
enough to result in meeting criteria. This may look a little funky
but overall coastal areas are not acclimated to these cold of
conditions (as a coastal resident I can confirm that it will be
wayyy to cold and I dread it already) and thus the impacts of cold
temperatures tend to occur before areas further inland that are
more acclimated. This is the reasoning for the higher thresholds
across the coastal county and why we may end up with extreme cold
products for areas that are technically warmer than areas to the
north.

The good news is this cooldown is only temporary and things will
quickly flip next week as the pattern flattens out and upper
ridging begins to build over the eastern US. Expect a gradual
warmup through next week as temperatures will rebound into the 70s
by Thursday. Our next rain chances look to come well after next

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions are in place at issuance time. Patchy to areas of
fog, some of which could be dense, along with IFR or lower
ceilings, are expected to develop later this evening and into the
early morning hours, especially along coastal counties. By around
09-10z, any fog that did manage to develop should begin to
dissipate and rain chances should increase as a strong cold front
approaches from the north. Rainfall could bring temporary
reductions in visibility and ceilings. VFR conditions will return
by the late morning/early afternoon hours in the wake of the
front. Light and variable winds tonight will become northerly by
mid morning and quickly increase to around 20-25 knots, with gusts
close to 30 knots. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Light onshore flow will persist through tonight. A strong cold
front will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong
northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind
the front Sunday through Sunday night. Frequent gusts to gale
force will be possible over the Gulf waters with strong small
craft conditions possible elsewhere. A Gale warning is now in
effect from Sunday evening through late Sunday night. Winds
subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday.
BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      47  56  23  49 /  60  30  10  10
Pensacola   52  61  27  50 /  40  30  10  10
Destin      53  64  31  51 /  30  30  10  10
Evergreen   43  52  21  50 /  70  30  10  10
Waynesboro  39  47  19  48 /  90  20  10  10
Camden      39  47  19  48 /  80  20  10  10
Crestview   49  58  22  51 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST
     Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST
     Monday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST
     Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
     GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST
     Monday for GMZ670-675.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for
     GMZ670-675.

&&

$$