112
FXUS63 KMQT 120521
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1221 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers continue across the northwest wind
  snow belts of the eastern UP through this evening. Additional
  snowfall totals peak at around 1-2".

- Northwest wind snowbelts could see accumulating snowfall
  through the weekend behind a clipper system.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through early next
  week. Low temperatures in the single digits to below zero are
  possible both Friday and Saturday nights. Gusty northwest
  winds will combine to create dangerous sub zero wind chill
  values.

- Warm-up expected mid to late next week with temperatures
  climbing above freezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Surface analysis/water vapor imagery this afternoon still shows
Upper Michigan under northwesterly flow with low pressure now
centered over the Maritime Provinces and high pressure tracking
through the Mississippi Valley. This has kept the U.P. under
lingering lake effect snow all day with persistent bands stretching
from Marquette to south of Trenary and from Grand Portal Point
southward to Manistique. As inversion heights continue to lower and
forecast soundings trend drier, though, expect diminishing snowfall
rates through this evening into tonight. Therefore, it will be tough
to get much more than 1-2 inches across the eastern U.P. through
tonight.

Any break in the snow chances early tomorrow will be short, however,
as focus quickly turns to the next clipper system progged for Friday
night/Saturday. Snowfall accumulations remain on the lower side with
much of the U.P. barely seeing 1 to 2 inches. However, it will once
again be the northwest wind snowbelts that have a chance to pick up
some higher amounts in the 4 to 8 inch range from Friday night
through the weekend with the transition back to lake effect snow.

Other impactful weather through the forecast period will be the
plummeting temperatures in the wake of the Friday clipper system. As
850 mb temperatures sink into the -20 to -25C range Friday night,
surface temperatures will follow with overnight lows in the -5 to 0
degree range over much of the interior west both Friday and Saturday
nights. And, eastern portions won`t be much warmer with readings in
the single digits above zero. Strong northwesterly winds on the
backside of the Friday system will also combine to create sub zero
wind chill values. Held off on issuing a Cold Weather Advisory for
now, but will need to be considered with future forecast issuances.
Tonight, expect lows ranging from the single digits above zero
(interior west and central) to teens/low 20s (east and Keweenaw).

Further out, highlights in the extended include a second clipper
system Sunday night into Monday with continued variability in
tracking and timing. And, then a warm-up is on the horizon for mid
to late next week with high temperatures climbing into the 30s for
the first time since Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Mainly MVFR conditions are observed at all sites tonight with
lingering lake effect cloud cover. IWD and SAW will SCT-out
early this TAF period while CMX lifts to a BKN low-end VFR as
winds become light and SWerly. A clipper low then moves over the
UP today, bringing increased winds out of the W to NW behind
the cold front and -SHSN, the combination of which will bring
15-25% chances of periods of LIFR visibility at all sites,
highest at CMX. W to NW wind lake effect SHSN then affects all
sites late in the period, though uncertainty is high in the
particular details of the ceilings and vis as subtle differences
in the wind direction will have a large effect on the flight
category at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1117 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northwest winds have tapered off below 20 knots across the entire
lake this afternoon where they will stay through tomorrow morning.
By Friday afternoon, a ramp up into the 20 to 25 knot range will
begin with gales across central and eastern portions of the lake by
Sat 03Z. So, with probabilities of gales now as high as 80%, have
issued a Gale Watch early Friday night through Sunday morning. In
addition, heavy freezing spray will become a threat during that
timeframe as well as a frigid airmass overspreads the region.
Further out, a brief reprieve from the gales can be expected Sunday
before yet another gale event across the western half of the lake by
Sunday night. This time gales will be southwesterly. Probabilities
for this second round of gales are currently trending in the 50-60%
range.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
     LSZ240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDUD
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...TDUD