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FXUS64 KOHX 140036
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
636 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

- 36 straight hours below freezing starts around midnight tonight
  and lasts through noon on Monday. This includes wind chill
  values around zero Sunday morning and widespread lows in the
  teens to single digits Monday morning.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of Middle TN
  through noon Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

If you haven`t already, right now is the time to make your cold
weather preparations. If you have any outdoor pipes or faucets,
get those covered up ASAP. The arctic cold is well on its way to
our area this evening. Observations just off to our northwest in
Kentucky are already in the 20s. Temperatures will plummet as we
move into the overnight hours. Light rain is falling across
western Middle Tennessee this evening, and given surface temps
still in the upper 40s there, we do not anticipate the cold air to
make it in time for any precip changeover. These light showers
will push east, and there could be a brief period of mixing frozen
precip that falls over the Plateau, but given how light precip
is, impacts from that are not anticipated. By 6AM tomorrow
morning, temperatures will be in the mid to upper teens across all
of Middle Tennessee.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1050 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

An expansive cloud layer over the eastern half of the US does
include a few of our counties this morning, but most are seeing some
glorious sun. This is good news because the next 48 hours are only
going to be for the winter lovers. We had a front move through last
night that brought cooler and drier temperatures to the area for
today and a second due in here this evening is going to bring us the
coldest temperatures we`ve seen since late February. As the front
starts into the area, there is a low chance of light precipitation.
Mainly focused east of I-65, with temperatures falling off, this is
expected to come in the form of a wintry mix. Light rain, changing
to light freezing rain and then snow by daybreak should be the order
of things but again, with QPFs as small as they are, any impacts
should be very limited. What will be MUCH more impactful will be the
cold air and windy conditions starting after midnight. This will
kick off a solid 36 hours where all of Middle TN will be below
freezing -- and some WELL below freezing for a good portion of that.
North winds will begin to kick up around midnight, gusting 20 to 30
mph and making teens on the mercury feel like low single digits to
just below 0F. Wind Chills of -4 to 0F will be common across most
of Middle TN north of I-40 when the sun comes up tomorrow. With
highs only reaching the low to mid 20s Sunday and winds continuing
to gust into the afternoon hours, it`s going to be very
uncomfortable if you`re going to be outside. While winds will
relax tomorrow evening, the cold isn`t over. We`ll start to see
maximum radiational cooling Sunday night as the surface ridge
slips into the Tennessee Valley area and by Monday at sunrise,
lows are expected to fall into the single digits and low teens.
All of this adds up to me extending the Weather Advisory until
noon on Monday when we finally get back above freezing across the
mid-state in an effort to encourage cold weather shelters to
remain open through Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1050 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Once we do climb back above freezing midday on Monday, temperatures
will slowly warm all week. In fact, low 60s might even be in the
cards by Thursday.

Now, the question is, when will we finally get some rain? While it
was looking dry until Thursday in the last couple days of model
suites, there is some indication of light rain moving into the
region early Wednesday morning. Currently, the NBM does not have
this solution, but 00Z LREF does have this as a low chance. The main
focus will be Thursday`s rain, however. Right now, it looks like
just showers as instability is close to, if not zero. However, this
will need to be monitored throughout the week as overall, current
depictions of this system are fairly dynamic with plenty of shear
accompanying the frontal passage. QPFs regarding Thursday system
range from 0.25 to 0.50".

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A strong cold front has already swept through Middle Tennessee,
and a broad area of post-frontal moisture will bring low clouds to
the mid state this evening through the overnight period. Winds
will remain gusty and generally from the north through the TAF
period. There are low PoPs tonight mainly along the Cumberland
Plateau. We`ve left precipitation out of the TAFs for now given
the low potential. However, any light shower that does occur
likely would not restrict visibility, regardless.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      16  24  13  40 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    13  21  11  38 /  20   0   0   0
Crossville     15  23   8  39 /  30   0   0   0
Columbia       16  26  11  40 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     15  22  10  38 /  40   0   0   0
Jamestown      14  21   8  39 /  40   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   17  26  11  39 /  30   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   15  25  11  40 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        13  23  10  36 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose