492
FXUS64 KOUN 132350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
550 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

 - Colder air from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning, then
   a quick warmup.

 - No chances for precipitation through the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

One of those days where the forecast is dominated by a shallow cold
airmass that even short-range models are desperately trying to catch
up to. Temperatures are warming up late this morning across central
and western Oklahoma just ahead of a surge of northeast surface
winds and advancing stratus in northern Oklahoma. Other bands of
stratus exist in western north Texas and eastern Oklahoma that are
creating a fragmentary landscape of insolation at this hour.

However, there`s an over-arching theme to the near-term forecast: it
will be colder than the models are showing. Particularly where
northeast winds and stratus are already entrenched, it`s hard to
envision much if any warming happening. That will leave high
temperatures in the 30s in the northern and northeastern part of the
CWA, while we will likely see 60s further to the south. Cloud cover
also will be a challenge but is likely to see a general increase
especially as the sun starts to set. Winds will shift northeasterly
and become breezy as the pressure gradient tightens.

That steady north-to-northeast breeze will continue tonight with
temperatures dropping. Actual air temperatures will be cold but not
outlandish - a little under 10 degrees below normal in most spots -
but with the breeze, wind chills will get into the single digits in
most spots. We likely will have some spots report wind chills under
zero in northern Oklahoma.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A strong surface high pressure (close to 1040 mb) will be centered
along an axis from Iowa to northern Oklahoma tomorrow morning. This
will promote clearing skies and calming winds. We may even see a
flip to light southerlies by the end of the day. Because of that, it
may not "feel" quite as cold as it is, but highs will still remain
in the 30s to low 40s.

Southerly winds will increase tomorrow night. This will give us
another night of rather brisk wind chills. But, with the sun coming
out during the day on Monday, the trade-off will be a quick end to
our abrupt Arctic airmass event, with highs climbing near to above
normal.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The main weather message into next week remains above-normal
temperatures and dry surface weather. A weak upper wave will move
across portions of Texas on Tuesday, offering another dry frontal
passage. The Pacific origins of this system will limit concern for
additional cold/cooler in its wake. In fact, temperatures look to
continue warming into the midweek, with 70s possible across
southern zones by Wednesday. We will want to keep tabs on possible
fire weather concern by this time, with potential for overlapping
areas of <20% afternoon relative humidity and gusty southwest
winds.

The passage of a stronger system/front is becoming more evident
as we head towards the end of the week, though disagreement
exists on the degree of resulting sensible weather impact for our
area.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

MVFR conditions are likely for most sites this evening into
tonight with gusty north winds and strong cold air advection.
MVFR ceilings are anticipated to lift near or after midnight, but
will be watching trends closely. Gusty N/NNE winds begin
diminishing near or just after sunrise with winds becoming light
by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  19  34  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         19  38  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  24  40  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           15  39  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     14  32  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         24  41  25  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01