992
FXUS63 KPAH 131927
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
127 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much colder air will fill in behind a potent cold front today
  with the coldest temperatures being tonight into tomorrow
  morning. Wind Chill values will be below zero. A Cold Weather
  Advisory is in place.

- The cold is short lived as temperatures moderate mid week and
  come up to the 50s Wednesday and possibly a few 60s on
  Thursday.

- Rain chances come back into the forecast Wednesday night into
  Thursday as showers and potentially even thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A potent cold front is moving through the area today. This will
bring extra cold temperatures to the region tonight. Wind
chills are expected to be below zero tonight with a Cold Weather
Advisory in place from midnight tonight till noon tomorrow.
There is also the potential for some drizzle and/or light snow
this afternoon that is present in some model soundings mainly
for the western half of the area. Chances for drizzle/light snow
decrease after 00Z this evening. Highs are expected to be in
the teens and 20s tomorrow with lows in the 10s and single
digits tomorrow night. The cold will be short lived however as
an ~1042 mb sfc high passes overhead.

Temperatures start to moderate on Monday and warm up on Tuesday and
Wednesday, and peak on Thursday as the sfc high moves off to the
southeast. Southwesterly return flow will help us to warm up along
with more zonal flow aloft by Tuesday. Highs will be in the 30s
Monday, the 40s Tuesday, 50s Wednesday, and pushing 60 by Thursday.

A couple disturbances aloft bring back precip chances to the
forecast starting Wednesday evening and peaking on Thursday
morning. Precip will mainly be showers with a few thunderstorms
possible. The EC and the GFS are now in better agreement with a
~982 mb sfc low over northern MN Thursday morning. There are
still differences in the progression of this low and how much
QPF we may or may not see. There is agreement, however, in a
cold front being pulled through on Thursday. Highs go from
pushing 60 on Thursday back to the 40s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

MVFR and occasional IFR cigs are in place today and won`t
scatter out until around midnight and later. Some model
soundings are showing the potential for some light snowfall
around MVN later this afternoon/evening, but right now that is
lower confidence, so only went with a PROB30. Dry air also seems
to be impeding any drizzle formation across the area, so removed
any mention of drizzle or freezing drizzle from the TAFs.

Winds will shift slightly from northeasterly to more northerly
and will be northerly overall. Winds could pickup briefly later
this evening at the western terminals with gusts around 15-20
kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
     for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
     for MOZ076-086-087-110>112-114.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight CST /1 AM EST/ tonight to
     noon CST /1 PM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
     for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD