326
FXZS60 NSTU 140137
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
237 PM SST Sat Dec 13 2025

.Short term...

Throughout the morning and early afternoon hours, satellite
imagery has shown disorganized convection just to the north and
east of the American Samoa islands. The majority of the heavy
rain to the north is anticipated to move southwest, away from the
islands. However, showers remain likely for the rest of the day
through Sunday night. Easterly winds are to become northerly
later this evening and slowly begin to shift from the northwest by
late Sunday.

.Long term...

The forecast for all of next week depends on the exact location of
the SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone). The weather pattern
formation has the ingredients for the potential of severe weather
during this time, which includes breezy to strong northwesterly
winds and the possibility of consistent and/or heavy rainfall
that may trigger widespread flash flooding conditions.

Northwesterly winds are forecast to increase on Monday. If the
SPCZ is closer and stronger to American Samoa, winds may reach up
to around 30 mph at times. However, may be less than that if the
SPCZ is further away. Therefore, our wind speed range for next
week is higher than usual due to SPCZ location uncertainties.
There is high confidence of above average rainfall throughout the
week. We will monitor the potential of flash flooding during this
time.

Overall, we will monitor the SPCZ closely throughout the week for
the potential for severe weather as confidence levels of the exact
position of the SPCZ is not high at this time. If the SPCZ remains
further south, conditions are likely to be less than forecast.

We want to remind everyone that we are beginning to enter the
typically more active part of our hurricane season and to
continue to be prepared throughout the season.

&&

.Marine...

The latest data from the PacIOOS buoys to the west of Tutuila and
to the east of Aunu`u show ideal sea conditions. These ideal seas
are forecast to continue through the weekend. However, be aware
of the possibility of thunderstorms for the rest of the day and
tonight over the American Samoa coastal waters.

For next week, an SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) is
forecast to move close to American Samoa. Winds may increase to a
fresh to strong northwesterly breeze at times. If winds increase
to this strength, expect wind driven seas to likely also reach
the Small Craft Advisory levels. Confidence on the exact location
and strength of the SPCZ is not high at this time. However, we
anticipate rainfall to be above average, which may cause strong
gusty winds near heavy rainfall and the potential of
thunderstorms.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories at this time
(Saturday afternoon). Please see weather.gov/ppg for the latest
updates.

&&

$$

LaPlante

LaPlante