017
FXUS64 KSHV 132338
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
538 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1024 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

 - Lingering late morning fog will give way to mostly cloudy
   skies today and some small rain chances across our southern
   counties/parishes in advance of much colder, frigid air.

 - That colder, frigid air arrives late tonight and through the
   day Sunday with wind chill temperatures during the day Sunday
   near freezing in some locations.

 - The coldest air will settle into our region Sunday Night with
   subfreezing temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s
   through late morning Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1009 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Weak frontal boundary across the I-20 corridor to linger through
today. Low-level moisture south of the boundary which has
contributed to morning fog will eventually translate into
increased showers and isolated thunderstorms later this evening
in advance of a stronger cold front that will dive south across
the region. The best chances for rainfall will be across mainly
Deep East Texas and North Louisiana. Could see post-frontal
elevated showers late this evening as the shallow arctic air
begins to deepen areawide. By daybreak, temperatures across
southeast Oklahoma and south Arkansas are forecast to have fallen
into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Any lingering precipitation is
forecast to to be be driven south with the front.

Cold air advection to continue into Sunday with afternoon high
temperatures forecast to range from the mid 30s into the 40s.
However, an increased pressure gradient will allow for wind speeds
around 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. The higher winds will allow
for wind chill values to from the upper 20s across south Arkansas
and north-central Louisiana to the lower 40s across east and
northeast Texas. On the bright side, wind speeds are forecast to
become near calm on Sunday night across most areas mitigating wind
chill impacts. However, overall ambient temperatures are forecast
to fall into the upper teens to lower 20s across most of the
ArkLaTex. From 10 to 15 hours of below freezing temperatures can
be expected across the region.

In terms of advisories or warnings, the only area of concern would
be across portions of northeast Louisiana as wind speed values of
5 to 10 mph may persist into Sunday night as temperatures fall
into the low to mid 20s. Resulting wind chill values of 15 degrees
across a few counties remain marginal for a Cold Weather Advisory.
Will monitor trends over the next couple of forecast packages to
determine if an advisory will be needed.

The arctic airmass to exit the region to the east on Monday
allowing for a gradual warming trend as southerly flow returns.
However, another round of subfreezing temperatures in the upper
20s across north Louisiana is expected on Monday night with
departing surface high.

Otherwise, scattered rain chances from Tuesday night into Thursday
as a broad weak upper-trough swings east across the region. Zonal
flow behind the trough will maintain a semi-unstable airmass with
partly cloudy skies prevailing. Expect mild temperatures with
highs in the 60s and lows in the lower 50s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Widespread cloud cover prevails over much of the region and will
continue overnight tonight. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with a weak warm front are expected to
continue for sites generally along and south of I-20 through the
next 6 hours or so. After which, surface winds will begin to gust
up to 20+ kts which will continue through much of the period.
Ceilings will lower slightly around daybreak and gradually lift
and clear for most areas by Sunday afternoon. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1009 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  45  25  48 /  40   0   0   0
MLU  33  40  21  43 /  50   0   0   0
DEQ  29  42  20  45 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  33  42  22  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  28  37  18  43 /  30   0   0   0
TYR  40  48  27  51 /  30   0   0   0
GGG  39  47  24  49 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  44  53  26  52 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57