692
FXUS63 KTOP 132327
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
527 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold today and tomorrow, wind chills near zero tonight.

- Notably warmer Monday and staying mild for the rest of the week.

- Staying dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A look at CONUS water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over the
Great Lakes this afternoon, with stronger upper ridging over the
West Coast. Rounding the base of the upper low is a Clipper system
that is currently over Illinois and Indiana, with a trailing cold
front stretching back towards eastern KS. Strengthening CAA behind
this front has kept temperatures from rising through much over the
daytime hours, with temperatures still mostly stuck in the mid 20s.
There`s also been enough weak low-level lift behind the front to
produce some light precipitation near the Nebraska border. While
this was initially in the form of very light freezing drizzle,
recent reports have all been of light snow, indicating temperatures
have cooled enough to allow for better ice crystal production. Skies
are expected to clear throughout the evening and overnight as CAA
continues, dropping temperatures into the single digits by sunrise.
Coupled with the weakening north wind, wind chills should bottom out
a few degrees on either side of zero. High pressure stays just to
our east for tomorrow, keeping temperatures in the 20s despite sunny
skies.

A much warmer pattern arrives Monday as the West Coast ridging
expands eastward. Temperatures climb back into the 40s for Monday
and 50s Tue/Wed. We should see a cooldown for Thu/Fri as stronger
low pressure system moves across the Northern Plains, though there
is still sizable spread in the exact magnitude of the cooldown.
Either way, with the broad ridging in place expecting mostly dry
conditions to continue. Just a very low chance for a few showers Wed
Night or Thursday with the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The snow band from earlier has quickly pushed south of
terminals, and while a few additional flurries can`t completely
be ruled out in the next hour or so, impacts to flight
categories should remain minimal. Upstream obs show stratus at
MVFR levels up to the KS/NE border, so would expect this to
persist at least until the mid-evening hours before eventually
scattering out later tonight. North winds should gradually
diminish as well, eventually becoming light and then turning
back to the south by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Picha