282
FXUS63 KUNR 132321
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
421 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures continue through Sunday morning, followed by a
  warming trend.

- Dry conditions expected the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show ridge over the west
coast, with northwest flow over the forecast area. Surface
analysis shows high pressure settling over the Dakotas, with a low
over western WY. Temperatures currently sit in the single digits
for most of the region, while the Black Hill areas range in the
teens to almost 30. Winds are generally light and variable this
afternoon.

Snow has generally tapered off across the CWA aside from some
lingering light flurries over the Black Hills that will not last
much longer. Cold temperatures will remain through tonight, with
some areas getting to right around 0 degrees. Upper ridge builds
over the Rockies Sunday and low level southwesterly WAA sets up as
well, resulting in a warming trend to start the week, with highs
climbing into the 40s to low 50s for most of the forecast area
tomorrow. Expect these warmer and generally dry conditions to
stay for the first half of next week, with little change to the
overall pattern. Mid-week the upper flow becomes more zonal, and
models hint at a wave moving through southwest Canada and
eventually into the northern plains by Wednesday/Thursday. This
will bring our next chance for precipitation and a brief drop in
temperatures. Lower confidence in timing and precipitation amounts
this far out, but will be monitoring as we move through next
week. Long range models keep a more active zonal flow later next
week, with the potential for more chances at light precipitation
over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 419 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

A few lingering low clouds and MVFR/IFR conditions will give way
to all VFR conditions after 14/00-02z. VFR conditions will then
continue through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...SE