Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 162342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Updated weather type as a wintry mix, mixes in with the rain. For
many locations drizzle will be the primary precipitation type and
as temperatures cool, this may become freezing drizzle briefly
before it exits the area. Still expect the precipitation to exit
the area by midnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

After a couple of days in the 60s and 70s, the weather turned windy
and colder today as an upper low pressure system was tracking
across northern KS near the Nebraska/Kansas state line early this
afternoon. We saw some decent rain showers and a few thunderstorms
lift north across our region this morning. Rain amounts were
pretty variable with Ord seeing the most rain so far at 0.34",
Aurora 0.18", York 0.13", Grand Island 0.12" and Lexington 0.06".
Temperatures through the afternoon rose very little (or fell a
few degrees) across south central Nebraska and averaged in the mid
30s to low 40s north to south, however clearing/sun in north
central Kansas allowed temps to reach the upper 50s/low 60s.

As the upper low pressure system tracks east/northeast this evening,
we`ll see some deformation/wraparound precipitation spread across
south central Nebraska, with drier air across KS keeping the
precipitation at bay. The precipitation type is the main concern with
mainly rain expected with the precip through the afternoon, then a
rain/snow mix and a possible brief change to snow as temperatures
cool during the evening. As drier air works in on the back side of
the system, we lose dendritic moisture and as the precip winds down,
a little freezing drizzle or possibly freezing rain may occur before
the system departs. Models suggest little in the way of potential
snow or ice accumulations, with snow generally less than an inch and
icing from any freezing precip only a hundredth or two. This being
said, locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out in precipitation

Models are consistent in that the majority of the precipitation
will be over by 10 pm or shortly thereafter. Clouds will gradually
decrease west to east tonight and Saturday, with some chilly
overnight temps in the 20s forecast in the colder air. These sub
freezing temperatures and wet ground could result in some slick
spots. Saturday will see dry weather in shortwave ridging in
between our departing system and the next one moving into the

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

In a progressive weather pattern, the weather turns active again
late in the weekend and the end of next week bringing good
chances for precipitation late Sunday into Monday and again
Thursday night/Friday.

A couple of low pressure systems close off from the approaching
western trough on Sunday, with our area influenced by the system
deepening in the four corners region and tracking across northern
portions of the southern plains. Precipitation chances increase
through the day Sunday, with models suggesting a little
instability to warrant the mention of thunder. The main
instability axis remains to our south and while the SPC Day 3
outlook slight risk clips our southern zones, confidence in severe
weather this far north isn`t high at this time.

Rain chances ramp up Sunday night into Monday as the low crosses,
then a little snow or rain/snow mix is possible heading into
Monday night as a open wave crosses the plains. Upper ridging
builds across the interior CONUS for the middle of the workweek
with dry/mild conditions forecast Wednesday and Thursday. The late
week system will bring more rain potential heading into Friday and
models suggest some instability as well, but have held off on
thunder until things get closer.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

LIFR ceilings are improving to IFR as of this issuance and IFR is
expected to persist overnight before skies clear in the morning
hours. Winds will decrease and be northerly overnight before the
next surface high pressure slides overhead during the day




UPDATE...Billings Wright
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