Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 171129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The short-term forecast is fairly quiet in the wake of the
departing system that brought a mix of precipitation to much of

Stratus will slowly erode this morning, leading to mostly sunny
skies by mid afternoon and highs ranging from the upper 50s in
the south and southwest to the mid 40s in the northeast where
clouds hang on longer. Winds will be fairly light and variable as
high pressure passes to our north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

By Sunday, the trough that is currently over the far western U.S.
is expected to progress across the Rockies, gradually becoming
more negatively tilted and closing off as it ejects into the
Plains Sunday evening.

Warm-air advection ahead of the system may allow for a few
isolated showers Sunday afternoon, but better chances arrive as
the upper low approaches the area Sunday evening. There is
potential for a few thunderstorms over at least the southern half
of the forecast area Sunday evening. SPC has trimmed back their
convective outlook across our area, which is reasonable given the
uncertainty on exactly how unstable we will get.

The heaviest rain is expected to fall Sunday night, and the
heaviest should be across the southern half of the forecast area.
That said, the latest Euro is notably farther south, and actually
keeps the heaviest precipitation south of the forecast area
altogether. This will be a trend to monitor with upcoming

Late Sunday night into Monday morning, a combination of diurnal
and dynamic cooling may allow for snow to mix in for parts of the
forecast area.

Rain and snow will linger through the day Monday before
precipitation gradually comes to an end Monday night as the system
pushes off to the east. Latest GFS and Euro are both pretty
skimpy with total snow accumulation, so all said and done the
forecast calls for up to an inch of snow for portions of south-
central Nebraska.

We will see improving weather Tuesday through Thursday, with high
temperatures reaching the 50s to 60s both Wednesday and Thursday.

Another system is expected to impact the area between Thursday
evening and Saturday, but there are large discrepancies between
the models on timing at this point. As a result, we have a pretty
large window of precipitation chances during this window.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

MVFR stratus continues to impact both of the TAF sites. The back
edge of the stratus is along a line from roughly North Platte to
Phillipsburg, KS. It is not making much progress to the east
right now, but it should start eroding from west to east after

The expectation is that KEAR will start to clear out by late
morning and GRI will clear out by mid afternoon. It will be tough
to get an exact timeframe until the stratus starts dissipating,

Northwest winds will become light and variable this afternoon and




SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.