Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250525
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

...Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Updated PoPs through tonight into Wednesday to better match radar
trends and short term models. Heavily weighted towards HRRR/RAP
which keep precipitation pretty spotty north of I-80 through
tonight, then redevelop more persistent precipitation south and
east of Hastings in the early morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A swath of rain spread across our region today behind a cold front
and associated with an upper trough translating southeast across
Nebraska. Rainfall amounts so far have been fairly variable with
0.79" in the Beaver City area, Holdrege 0.61", Kearney 0.42",
Hastings and Lexington 0.13", Grand Island 0.08". This initial
round of rain will be winding down by evening and followed by a
lull/break, before the next round of rain arrives overnight into
Wednesday as the center of the upper low meanders south across
Nebraska into Kansas.

The rain overnight/Wednesday will be more focused across our
northern and eastern zones, with the rain gradually ending nw/se
Wednesday as the upper system departs into southeast Kansas. The
late afternoon/evening hours are shaping up to the be the best
part of Wednesday as conditions dry out and cloud cover decreases.
How much temps recover will depend on how quickly clouds depart
and while guidance has trended up, plan to keep temps
conservatively cool in our east where clouds linger longer, but
warmer for our western zones where greater insolation is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The big news in the extended forecast is that temperatures warm up,
but many of the days in the outer periods will see windy conditions.

Shortwave ridging in a northwest flow regime Wednesday night will
be shortlived in a progressive pattern, as yet another shortwave
trough and associated cold front cross the plains Thursday. North
winds will ramp up behind this cold front with gusts near 40 mph
expected, and a quick shot at some light rain showers remain
possible.

Heights rise aloft behind the departing system heading into
Friday and an overall northwest flow pattern remains in place
across the interior CONUS, due to an upper ridge over the Rockies
ahead of a potent upper low off the coast of northern CA. The
weather Friday is looking quite nice with mild temps in the
mid/upper 60s and fairly light winds.

Over the weekend the pattern undergoes changes as the western upper
low moves inland, allowing for a less amplified upper ridge to
migrate across the plains states, before flow transitions
southwesterly ahead of the western upper low late in the weekend/early
next week. Temperatures will trend noticeably warmer this weekend
under the influence of the upper ridge, with readings climbing well
into the 70s by Sunday. The warm temperatures will be accompanied
by strong south winds and by Sunday, models indicate wind gusts
near or over 40 mph possible. The warmer temps carry into the
first part of next week while precipitation chances are less
certain in the outer periods due to model difference in
timing/location. Did not deviate from the ensembles with some
chance for rain returning late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Precipitation across the sandhills has been diminishing as it
moves southward, therefore I believe that the terminals may
struggle to see much more rain. That said, the HRRR has been
consistent in redeveloping showers near or just south of the
terminals in the 09-12Z timeframe, the pushing this rain south of
the area.

Ceilings are a little bit tricky. Right now they are borderline
MVFR/IFR but higher ceilings are located just to the north of the
area, and should slowly advect into the area tonight into tomorrow
morning. Judging by model soundings, both terminals could be VFR
by 14Z.

North winds will continue to gust to 15-20kts overnight before
gradually diminishing during the day on Wednesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Mangels



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