Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
345 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

A variety of weather impacts are expected today and tonight
thanks to a strong low pressure system moving through the area.

As of 3AM, model analysis snows a 989mb low along the KS/NE
border just west of McCook. WV imagery shows that this system is
nearly vertically stacked with the center of the upper level low
centered over northwestern Kansas. As such, the system should
remain relatively strong as it passes over the forecast area today
into tonight.

Currently, a line of thunderstorms has developed on an area of
mid-level moisture and lift ahead of the mid and upper-level low.
Expect this to continue northward and largely exit the forecast
area early this morning. This will likely leave the forecast area
mostly dry for a good chunk of the morning. RAP/HRRR have been
handling this trend fairly well, so the PoP forecast is heavily
based on those models.

Winds will remain gusty today, eventually shifting to the north
and northwest. The good news is that the strongest corridor of
winds is expected to remain southwest of the forecast area, but
some locations may still breifly see some 40 MPH gusts.

This afternoon, a second uptick in coverage of rain is depicted
by the short-term models. Thunderstorms aren`t expected in this
round of activity as we will be in the deformation band of the
system. Nevertheless, this may bring beneficial precipitation to
a large portion of the area. Unfortunately, the driest portions of
the forecast area in Kansas may end up seeing very little of
this precipitation.

The big question in this forecast is precipitation type.
Mesoscale models (NAM/HRRR/RAP) all tend to develop an area of
dynamic cooling on the backside of the low late this
afternoon...especially in the Greeley, Valley, and Nance county
areas. This could make for a wintry mix of rain, snow, and
possibly ice. Agreement on the location of this band is poor, so
the forecast is somewhat "averaged out" to less than an inch of
snow across a broad area. That said, I wouldn`t be surprised at
all if some portions of the area receive an inch or more of very
slushy snow.

Precipitation should wind through the late evening and overnight
as the system moves east of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The forecast quiets down for Saturday thanks to midlevel ridging,
with light winds and temperatures rebounding into the 40s and

This break will be relatively short-lived though, with another
system moving into the area Sunday afternoon into the overnight.
This system is forecast to be quite similar to the current system,
but with with a slightly more southern track.

Rain is likely across the area Sunday night. While there is a
slight chance for some snow across western portions of the area,
accumulation is unlikely with temperatures in the mid 30s.

Rain may linger through Monday as well as the system slowly moves
through. There is another chance for snow Monday night as we see
cold air advect into the area, but as of know it appears that the
most impacts will be felt north and west of the area across the

Quieter weather prevails again for Tuesday through Thursday,
although Tuesday will remain a a little cool for this time of
year with highs only in the 40s to low 50s. Warmer weather
gradually returns Wednesday and Thursday as an amplified ridge
develops over the area. Model solutions disagree on details, but
it appears that another system will move through the area Friday
into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

This is a complex aviation forecast, and therefore confidence in
specific details isn`t high.

Tonight into Friday morning, Easterly winds will continue to be the 30-35 kt range at times. Despite the gusty winds,
there may also be some marginal LLWS aloft. Scattered showers and
weak thunderstorms are also starting to develop now and may impact
the terminals through mid morning. As the lower levels saturate,
expect ceilings to begin to fall, likely to into the IFR range
shortly after 12Z.

By late Friday morning, the short-term models actually show a
pretty dry period for the terminal vicinity, lasting until mid-
late afternoon, when another round of stratiform rain is expected
to develop. IFR ceilings are expected to continue, and it is
possible that they could even dip into the LIFR range.

At this time, it still appears that any impacts from freezing
precipitation will be north of the terminals.

Aviation conditions will improve Friday evening as the system
exits the area.




SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.