Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 220829
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
329 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Today is the beginning of a solid warmup which is expected to
last through much of the remaining days of May.

Heights rise aloft today with flow transitioning southwest ahead of
a closed low pressure system lifting north through Nevada. Warm air
will advect across our region and H85 temps will rise a solid
5-6C from yesterday, allowing temps to climb well into the 80s
this afternoon. As mixing deepens in the afternoon, we could see
some wind gusts of 20-25 mph.

Precipitation wise, a couple of storms have just developed and
isolated/scattered convection remain possible primarily across
our northern/eastern zones this morning on the nose of the low
level jet. This activity is expected to dissipate by mid morning,
then while not widespread, a hit or miss shower or storm is also
possible later today/tonight primarily focused along our
western/northern cwa as a warm front lifts north and the low level
jet strengthens.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

The extended periods will see a continuation of warm summer type
weather with above normal temperatures. High temperatures the
remainder of the week and through the Memorial Day holiday weekend
are expected to reach well into the 80s or near 90 degrees, running
a solid 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year when
high temps average in the mid/upper 70s.

The warm weather is due to persistent southwest flow aloft for much
of the week as an upper trough over the Rockies lifts to
Saskatchewan, then heading into the weekend, upper ridging will
build onto the plains while an upper trough moves inland across
the western CONUS. The western upper low meanders in the south
central Rockies into early next week/Memorial Day with our region
remaining under the influence of the upper ridge in between the
western system and a closed upper low along the gulf coast states.

While most days and nights will be dry, small chances for showers
and storms exist intermittently during the extended time frame due
to warm air advection, subtle disturbances or a boundary in the
area. A few storms may become strong or severe as we see moisture
and instability increase but overall chances are not high at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

VFR conditions forecast though the period. Winds will pickup in
the afternoon with gusts to the upper teens to the low 20s. Also
brought in some afternoon cumulus clouds which should dissipate
after sunset. LLWS is very marginal for EAR so left it out of the
TAF, but tomorrow night it looks more robust as the LLJ looks to
be setting up over our western forecast area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Beda



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