Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 192323
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

This forecast is largely straight forward.

Aloft we have a shortwave ridge and a surface high giving us a
sunny day. Although 925mb to 850 mb temps continue to lag below
normal, giving us temps below average today near 0C to just above,
warming more in the west. Temps today will lag 5-10 degrees below
normal. Generally, highs should be in the mid 60s by this point.

Lows tonight will not be quite as chilly as warm air advection
modestly ensues as the surface high slips east. I like CONSshort
as it keeps us above freezing for lows.

Temps tomorrow should be approaching normal highs in the mid 60s,
but increasing cloudiness may put a damper on this. Expect warm
air advection to continue into Friday with increasing sky cover as
a deepening low over CO heads east, putting us into southwest flow
ahead of it. Could be some warm air advection type showers work
in from the west by Friday afternoon, and models are consistently
giving us a good chance of rain (yes, I said rain)

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Friday night into Saturday, as the closed low passes south of the
CWA across KS/OK. Trends continue to show that this system is
warmer, which keeps us liquid.

Then subsidence behind the wave will give us a dry Sunday, and
flattening ridging should keep Monday dry as well.

Models are consistent with another wave coming through Monday
night into Tuesday, and looks warm enough for all rain. Not enough
instability to include thunder, however. Still looks like we will
be at least somewhat below normal for the entire forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions are in the forecast for this TAF period. Sky cover
will be on the increase, but ceilings should remain in the
mid/upper levels. Not expecting a notable change in wind
direction, remaining generally southeasterly, though gusts near
20-25 MPH are possible tomorrow afternoon. An approaching upper
level low pressure system will bring increasing chances to the
area tomorrow and Saturday, but decided to keep any mention at the
terminals as VCSH for now, as models are slow bringing in
preciptiation.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...ADP



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