Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200000
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
700 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Cancelled the flood watch. The main threat for flooding has passed
with only light rain expected across these areas tonight.

The South Loup River is forecasted to be in action stage through
the weekend and the Mud Creek is forecast to reach action stage by
early next week due to runoff across Custer County, but the
overall threat for flooding appears to be low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Overcast skies have prevailed across all but far southern and
southeastern Nebraska today. Meanwhile areas of clearing have
developed across Kansas, allowing for cumulus development and a
sharp gradient in instability across the area. The RAP forecast
shows around 2000j/kg of MUCAPE across southeastern portions of
the forecast area (Mitchell, Jewell, and southern Thayer
counties). Based on the CU field, I expect that most of the
development will be east of our forecast area, but if something
can develop in the aforementioned area, it could take advantage of
steep lapse rates and strong shear to produce large, damaging
hail. Even if storms develop, I expect them to move out of the
forecast area by 7PM.

A band of more persistent rain showers continue across the Sandhills
associated with the 500mb low, and we may see this band approach the
I-80 corridor across central Nebraska again tonight as the upper low
moves eastward. With little to no instability to speak of, no
thunderstorms are expected with this activity. A few showers may
linger into Sunday before coming to an end...especially in
northeastern parts of the forecast area.

On Sunday, skies will likely be slow to clear causing high
temperatures to only reach the 60s across the forecast area. For
reference, this is about 10 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Clearing skies should allow temperatures to fall into the mid
to upper 40s Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This cooldown will be relatively short-lived though. High
temperatures are expected to return to the mid 70s to near 80
degrees on Monday as we move back into southerly flow near the
surface. Chances for thunderstorms return to the area Monday
night thanks to warm air advection and a 35-40kt low-level jet in
the area.

Off and on chances for thunderstorms then continue each day through
Friday as a deep upper low slowly moves out of the southwest US,
across the Rockies and into the northern Great Plains. Details and
timing of storms is still pretty uncertain, so no reason to make
any changes from the model consensus at this point.

High temperatures Tuesday through Friday are expected to reach the
mid to upper 80s, possibly making a run towards the low 90s for
portions of the area on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Plenty of MVFR or lower stratus expected to stream across the
terminals for the next 24 hours. Expect CIGS to gradually lower to
near 300 feet overnight...with a few showers also possible
through the overnight hours. In addition...could see some light BR
develop overnight...resulting in prevailing MVFR VSBYS...but
limited VSBYS to 5 SM at this time as wind direction is not
favorable for dense fog and winds will only relax to around 8 KTS
overnight. For tomorrow...cloudy skies are expected through the
afternoon hours...with IFR CIGS in the morning gradually
improving to near VFR levels by late afternoon as the responsible
system begins to exit the region.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Rossi


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