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000
FXUS63 KGID 131716
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very Warm Weekend into Monday: Daily high temperatures 20+
  degrees above normal (82-90), but not quite record setting.

- Red Flag Warning this afternoon/evening across portions of
  north central Kansas. We may need additional fire weather
  watch/warnings across our far western zones on Monday.

- Severe Weather (Slight Risk) Monday Evening/Overnight:
  Significant low pressure system will bring thunderstorms,
  but also the opportunity for some beneficial rainfall.

- Strong Winds Monday - Wednesday: Strong southeast winds ahead
  of the system on Monday, strong west northwest winds on
  Tuesday into Wednesday (25-35 Gusting to 45 mph)

- Gradual cool down with highs generally back down into the 50s
  by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Today...
Fire weather is the main forecast concern. Overall, most of our
Nebraska locations will see fairly light winds and thus should
not need a fire headline, although the RH values will be very
low. The stronger southwesterly winds are expected across our
Kansas counties, but could possibly reach up into Thayer and
Fillmore Counties. For now we have issued a Red Flag Warning for
only our Kansas Counties, but excluding Phillips County at this
time. The wind should be a bit lighter over Phillips County.
Please see the Fire Weather section below for more information.

The other forecast concern centers around the possibility for a
few isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening
as a weak short wave moves through, but has very little moisture
to work with. Several of our more mesoscale models indicate at
that we could see isolated showers/thunderstorms, but with
little if any precipitation expected for most areas. There will
be some limited instability around today so have included a
mention of thunder in the forecast mainly focused on north
central Kansas, which lines up pretty well with the SPCs
general thunder outlook for today.

Sunday...
Upper level ridge passing through will keep it warm and dry.
Winds should be easterly and fairly light so not expecting fire
weather headlines despite the continued low RH values.

Monday into Tuesday...
Confidence remains high in a strong upper storm system moving
through the central plains bringing gusty winds and a good
chance (70-80%) for precipitation to the area. Most areas will
see at least some precipitation mainly Monday night into Tuesday,
but the exact amounts remain rather uncertain at this time,
probably on average around (0.25 to 0.50 inches), but some areas
could end up getting missed and see almost nothing, while other
areas could possibly receive over 1 inch. The details will
continue to get worked out as the system approaches and the
storm track becomes better known. Strong gradient force winds
both ahead of and behind this storm system are likely, which
should at times result in wind gusts to around or over 45 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...
We will begin to cool down behind this storm system and several
frosty nights will again be likely beginning Thursday night.
Just something to be aware of if you get the urge to plant
sensitive garden vegetation during our upcoming 80 degree days.
High temperatures also fall off back down into the 50s by
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period. Few/scattered mid-upper level clouds continue this
afternoon-early evening, then mainly clear skies are expected.
Southwesterly winds continue this afternoon, a few isolated
gusts near 20 MPH are not out of the question, mainly at
GRI...then winds this evening at both sites turn light/variable.
Early Sunday morning winds switch to the northwest around 10
MPH, then turn more east-northeasterly mid-late morning with
increasing speeds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Today...
Used a model blend including bias corrected data that included
some of the higher wind and lower RH values for this
afternoon/evening. This resulted in a forecast that has us
meeting Red Flag Criteria most solidly across the southern tier
of our Kansas counties. However, would not be surprised to see
at least brief critical fire weather conditions this afternoon
as far north as Thayer county. At this time we have issued a Red
Flag Warning for the counties with the highest confidence of
meeting critical fire danger conditions (Rooks, Osborne,
Mitchell, Jewell, and Smith Counties in Kansas). We have our
greatest confidence in the low RH values falling below 20
percent, with a little less confidence in how frequently we will
see the stronger wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph.

Sunday...
Light east winds are expected (5-15 mph).

Monday...
There is no question that we will see strong southeasterly winds
on Monday with gusts of 40 to over 45 mph. The bigger question
centers around where the dry line will set up. Our eastern zones
should see moist air streaming north resulting in higher RH
values of over 30 percent. However, our far western zones could
end up behind the dry line with lower RH values around 20
percent and thus would need a fire weather watch/warning. It`s
still a bit too early to issue a fire headline given the
uncertainty, but Monday is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

We don`t expect to set any record highs during this warm spell,
but we could at least be within several degrees of our record
highs the next several days.

Grand Island
                     Record High     Forecast
Today April 14th     89 (2003)           83
Sunday April 15th    94 (2002)           84
Monday April 16th    94 (1964)           84

Hastings
                     Record High     Forecast
Today April 14th     91 (2006)           84
Sunday April 15th    89 (2003,2003,1940) 84
Monday April 16th    95 (2002)           84

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ006-007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely
CLIMATE...Wesely