Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 211140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
640 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The 500mb upper level low will slowly track from southeastern
Colorado this morning into northeastern Oklahoma by Sunday
morning. This southern track supports most of the noteworthy
rainfall of more than 0.10 inches falling across Kansas and
primarily south of our forecast area today into tonight. We did
have a good burst of rain overnight across much of the area and
that was likely the heaviest rain we will see from this system
with just light scattered rain expected around the area today into
tonight. However, it will remain overcast and cool with very
little rise in our temperatures today. Most areas will hold in the
upper 40s or lower 50s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Sunday and Monday...
We will be in between storm systems with the Oklahoma upper low
tracking into Tennessee and the next short wave trough tracking
from the pacific northwest into Wyoming. This will make for dry
and warmer weather. High temperatures on Sunday should climb back
into the upper 50s to near 60 although there could still be a good
many clouds around. Monday could be the best day of the week with
highs actually close to normal in the mid 60s, light winds, and
at least partly sunny skies.

Monday night through Tuesday night...
We`ll see the next shortwave track southeast across the region
bringing a cold front and chance for rain. This appears to be
another minor rain event as the deeper gulf moisture will be cut
off and unavailable for this system. Highs on Tuesday will
probably fall back down into the 50s.

Wednesday...Another break between storm systems and with some
sunshine we could possibly touch 60 degrees again in a number of

Thursday...The next upper trough swings southeast out of Canada
and across our region. There is very little moisture to work with
so just low end chances for a little light rain. The model blend
says highs in the lower 60s, but that may be too warm, watch to
see if these highs fall with future updates depending on the
strength of the cold front.

Friday into next weekend...Technically next weekend is just beyond
the end of the forecast period, but given the stretch of basically
5 cold/below normal weekends in a row, I wanted to say that
perhaps this last weekend in April might finally be a nice one if
current trends hold. It appears that we could see an upper level
ridge over the area that would bring dry weather and highs that
should be near to maybe even a little above normal for a change.
It could be a close call though on timing of another shortwave by
Sunday. We`ll see, but right now looking like perhaps finally a
nice weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The rain has become more isolated but is expected to remain around
the area off and on today into this evening, although probably
more off than on. Forecast models continue to indicate that we
should see ceilings lower into MVFR range as we get later into the
morning and afternoon. There will likely be some fluctuation
between primarily VFR and MVFR categories today.




LONG TERM...Wesely
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