Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
652 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

A large shift to the forecast has occurred as models and latest
trends indicate that the main deformation band will focus in our
western CWA south of Interstate 80 and give us some quick hitting
snow early this morning, and possibly later into the afternoon,
although afternoon is a weaker argument for much more snow.

Dynamic cooling made it much more pressing to get an advisory issued
for our southwest CWA, as returns were becoming quite strong,
indicating locally heavy snow, probably reducing visibility
significantly. In fact, visibility may wind up being a bigger factor
than the slick road conditions from snow accumulation. Looks like
this will be squarely in the advisory range mostly in the 2-4 inch
category, with the heavier amounts in very narrow bands. Higher
precip rates will help keep the boundary layer cool, so it might
take a bit longer for the latter half of March insolation effects to
finally warm things up to reduce snow accumulation rates, and
possibly switch everybody back to rain by afternoon.

May have to reduce snow amounts in our northeast as the snowband
fell apart there and there does not appear to be any new bands
forming, so the near 2 inches in the Snow-Total for Grand
Island/Hastings and areas to the northeast will be reduced in the
near future if latest trends continue.

As we cool down this evening and we transition back to all snow,
precip rates will wane enough to not be much of an issue tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Not a lot of time spent on the long term as the main focus was on
short term forecast, but I did notice enough instability to stick in
some thunder for Friday evening.

Upper level ridging will put us on a warning trend for the work
week, but give way to a pattern shift over the weekend to cool us
down a bit, but still not looking arctic at least.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Tuesday)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Poor conditions with ceilings near the IFR/LIFR cusp along with
increasing wind gusts and periods of snow/rain. Visibility may
drop suddenly with heavier bands/showers of snow, but confidence
is low with coverage and timing today and this evening.


NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ060-

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-



SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.