Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 172023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
323 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The morning hours were pretty dreary as low cloud cover encompassed
a large swath of the plains from central/eastern South Dakota
through central/eastern Nebraska into eastern KS, Missouri and Iowa.
The low clouds have been slower to depart than expected 24 hours
ago, with the clearing line currently edging toward Ord, Kearney
and Red Cloud. The gradual clearing from west to east will
continue into early evening and the evening hours may end up the
being the better part of the day with the decreasing clouds, light
winds and a late day temperature recovery.

The low clouds may not completely depart our eastern zones and short
term models suggest these low clouds will move back into portions of
our area overnight. In addition, light southeast low level flow and
presence of low level moisture may lead to the development of fog
and this has been added to the forecast. The fog may become dense in
some areas which will need to be monitored by later shifts.

The majority of Sunday is looking fairly quiet and dry weatherwise
ahead of an approaching low pressure system moving out of the
Rockies across southern Colorado. Warm air advection in the late
afternoon may lead to the development of a few showers or

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Precipitation chances ramp up Sunday night mainly after dark as a
closed low pressure system emerges onto the plains. Models are in
better agreement with the track of the low along the KS/OK
stateline which gives locations in Kansas the better chances for
precipitation and higher rainfall amounts. The precipitation will
begin as rain and a little thunder is possible for a few hours in
our southern zones in the presence of instability. Colder air
begins to advect south on the back side of the low late Sunday
night and a little snow may mix in with the rain with little if
any accumulation.

Monday is still shaping up to be cloudy, cooler and intermittently
wet with the Sunday night system gradually departing, but followed
by additional rain/snow chances with another disturbance. Thermal
profiles suggest a mainly rain event for Monday, with a transition
to snow Monday night with some very minor accumulations of a few
tenths of an inch possible.

Dry weather returns Tuesday through Thursday and temperatures trend
up during the week as upper ridging builds across the interior
CONUS. The ridge axis begins to break down late in the week and into
next weekend with small chances for rain returning, but nothing
significant at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The forecast for the terminals the next 24 hours is looking more
complicated in terms of cloud cover. MVFR stratus has been slow to
erode from west to east today and while a gradual clearing is
still expected, models are showing stratus may advect in again
overnight and fog development is also possible. Short term models
indicate that fog may be dense in some locations, generally
favoring areas along and north of Interstate 80. Have included a
tempo group for now for the potential for reduced visibilities
late tonight into Sunday morning.




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